Investing in Xiaomi Stock: Innovation Driving the Next Price Jump?

Xiaomi was long known primarily for its smartphones. However, since March 2024, the Chinese company has also been delivering electric vehicles, directly competing with major manufacturers like BYD and Tesla with its SU7 model.

Following the positive launch of their electric vehicles, the subsequent rise in Xiaomi’s stock price, and the very positive quarterly figures in Q2 2025, many market participants are interested in this security. Reason enough for us to take a closer look at the company and highlight possible price developments.

Xiaomi Stock Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Xiaomi stock forecasts for 2025 to 2030 vary widely. This is because the company operates in various sectors, moves in a complicated macro environment, and predictions are therefore very complex.

Before looking at possible price targets, let’s examine the key aspects that will influence Xiaomi’s stock price in the future, starting with challenges and then the company’s strengths.

Challenges for Xiaomi

1. Market Saturation and Competition

Xiaomi still generates most of its revenue in the smartphone market, even though this share has fallen to 52.4% in 2024. This market is now highly saturated, making it a major challenge to gain additional market share.

Additionally, Xiaomi competes with many major players like Apple, Samsung, and Huawei for market share. This competition could lead to lower margins, which is already evident in the decreased smartphone gross margin of 12.6% (compared to 14.6% the previous year). The margin pressure continued in Q2 2025, further reducing to 11.5%.

2. Heavy Dependence on Domestic Market

Although Xiaomi has made significant progress in internationalization in recent years, 58.1% of its 2024 revenue still comes from its home country of China. While the share of international revenue at 41.9% is considerable, the dependence on the Chinese market remains.

This makes Xiaomi dependent on the consumer climate, regulations, and general market conditions there. Should there be a cooling off, this could have negative consequences for Xiaomi’s stock price.

3. Trade Tensions and Tariffs

A further risk for Xiaomi is the intensified trade relations between the US and China. The US tariffs on Chinese electronics introduced in March 2025 could have far-reaching consequences despite Xiaomi’s limited presence in the US market, as the tariffs affect key product categories like smartphones and other electronic devices. Additionally, since late 2024, the EU has also imposed countervailing duties on electric cars produced in China, making it harder for providers like Xiaomi to enter the European market. Such trade conflicts can disrupt global supply chains, increase component costs, and slow Xiaomi’s international expansion.

4. Technological Changes and Innovation Costs

Xiaomi must continuously invest in research and development to stay at the technological forefront and develop innovative products. The company increased its R&D spending by 25.9% to 24.05 billion RMB in 2024, highlighting the importance of this area.

The transition to new technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things (IoT), and especially electric vehicles requires substantial investments. In 2024, Xiaomi had 21,190 research and development employees, representing 48.5% of the total workforce.

5. Challenges in the EV Market

By entering the electric automobile market, Xiaomi has ventured into a new, capital-intensive business area. Although the start with 136,854 vehicles delivered in 2024 was very successful, Xiaomi faces enormous competition in this sector, especially in China. Price competition is intense, and established automakers as well as other technology companies are investing heavily in this sector.

For 2025, Xiaomi plans to deliver 350,000 vehicles, requiring a significant production increase. The question remains whether the company can operate profitably in this market long-term, though the current gross margin of 26.4% in the EV segment is promising.

Positive Factors for Xiaomi

1. Strong Brand Recognition and Loyalty

Xiaomi has made a name for itself for high-quality products at affordable prices, fostering strong brand loyalty. Besides smartphones, Xiaomi offers a wide range of products including IoT devices, home appliances, and wearables, reducing dependence on a single product segment.

The successful diversification is evident in the 2024 figures: the smartphone share of total revenue fell to 52.4%, while the IoT sector with 28.5% and the new Smart EV segment with 9.0% achieved significant shares. Particularly remarkable is the extremely successful entry into the electric car market with 136,854 vehicles delivered in the first year, highlighting Xiaomi’s ability to tap into new growth sectors.

Xiaomi confirmed this trend in the first half of 2025, delivering 157,171 vehicles to its customers.

2. Innovation Capability

Xiaomi invests heavily in research and development, with R&D spending increasing by 25.9% to 24.1 billion RMB in 2024. The company employs 21,190 research and development staff, representing 48.5% of the total workforce. These investments have led to significant innovations.

3. Efficient Production and Supply Chains

Xiaomi demonstrated its efficient production processes and effective cost control again in 2024. Despite entering the capital-intensive EV business, the total operating cost ratio only increased by 1 percentage point to 15.0%. The operating cost ratio in the Smartphone × AIoT segment actually improved by 0.7 percentage points to 12.6%.

These efficiency gains contributed to record profitability with an adjusted net profit of 27.2 billion RMB, an increase of 41.3% over the previous year.

4. Financial Stability

With a strong balance sheet and substantial cash resources of 175.1 billion RMB (including cash reserves and short-term investments), Xiaomi has the financial flexibility to continue investing in new technologies and markets. The company actively conducted share buybacks worth 3.7 billion HKD in 2024, reflecting management’s confidence in the long-term outlook.

Operating cash flows continued to develop strongly at 39.3 billion RMB in 2024, underpinning the company’s solid financial foundation.

5. Strong International Growth

Xiaomi has significantly expanded its global presence. In 2024, revenue from international markets reached 153.3 billion RMB, accounting for 41.9% of total revenue. According to Canalys, Xiaomi was among the top three smartphone brands in 56 countries and regions in 2024 and among the top five in 69 countries and regions. Particularly noteworthy were the increases in smartphone market shares in Africa (+2.4 percentage points), Southeast Asia (+2.0 percentage points), and the Middle East (+1.5 percentage points).

The above points show that while Xiaomi operates in a challenging competitive environment, it is well-positioned for the future due to its broad product range, operational strengths, and good financial base.

For Xiaomi’s stock forecast for 2025 to 2030, both positive and negative scenarios can be formulated.

For growth scenarios, we use several expected growth rates for the technology market from analyst reports by MGI Research (7.75% CAGR), The Business Research Company (8.3% CAGR), and Market Analysis (25.73% CAGR).

Based on a stock price of 5.86 euros, this results in the following price targets for 2025 and 2030:

In a negative scenario, Xiaomi experiences a downturn. It’s difficult to predict exactly what this downturn might look like as there are no good data sources for this. Nevertheless, we want to look at three scenarios with annual price declines of 3, 5, and 10%.

For these Xiaomi forecasts, it should be noted that larger price declines are also conceivable.

According to Investing.com, expert forecasts for Xiaomi based on 38 analysts are mostly positive for the next twelve months, with the stock seen as a clear buy by consensus. The average upside potential is estimated at +25.30%, resulting in a price target of 7.34 euros.

What Does Xiaomi Do? From Smartphones to Electric Cars

Xiaomi is a Chinese company based in Beijing that specializes in the development and manufacturing of consumer electronics, household appliances, software, and now electric cars.

Founded in 2010 by Lei Jun, the company has since developed into one of the world’s leading technology companies. While initially focusing on the domestic market, Xiaomi is now operating globally and sells its devices in over 100 countries, with about 41.9% of revenue coming from foreign markets outside China.

Xiaomi became known primarily for its smartphones, and today this segment is still the company’s largest revenue driver. The company has managed to offer high-quality smartphones at affordable prices and is therefore very popular, especially in emerging markets. Xiaomi relied for years on its own Android-based operating system called MIUI. This was replaced by the HyperOS operating system with the Xiaomi 14 Series, which is also based on Android.

Since 2021, the company has also increasingly invested in e-mobility and worked on its own Xiaomi car. In March 2024, Xiaomi was able to bring its first electric car, the SU7, to market.

The launch of the car has been a great success so far, as Xiaomi was able to sell a total of 136,854 units of its own Tesla competitor by the end of 2024. For 2025, Xiaomi aims to deliver 350,000 vehicles. Additionally, the YU7-SUV, the second model, was presented in June 2025 and generated over 240,000 pre-orders within 18 hours.

Xiaomi Stock in Numbers - What Determines Its Value

In this section, we take a closer look at Xiaomi stock. We’ll examine both the stock’s performance and various stock metrics, as well as Xiaomi’s financial report for 2024. We’ll also show how the figures have developed in the second quarter of 2025.

Xiaomi stock is currently (August 29, 2025) trading at 5.86 euros. This represents a gain of 167.43% over the last 12 months and a market capitalization of around 152 billion euros. For comparison: the Nasdaq100 grew by just 22.65% in the same period – and the Hang Seng Index grew by “only” 41%.

Xiaomi stock currently has a P/E ratio of around 34, which is significantly higher than that of other technology companies such as Samsung (P/E of 14) and Apple (P/E of 32).

Xiaomi Stock: Development in Q2 2025

Xiaomi’s business development was again very positive in the second quarter of 2025. This is reflected in the following key figures:

The table shows that Xiaomi recorded strong development in almost every key metric in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. For example, total revenue in the second quarter rose to 116.0 billion RMB, an increase of +30.50% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. This meant Xiaomi once again exceeded the 100 billion RMB quarterly revenue mark. There were also significant increases in gross profit, operating profit, and net profit.

These excellent developments can be explained by several factors: On one hand, Xiaomi achieved a small increase of 0.6% in smartphone shipments, keeping its sales figures stable. This development is particularly important as the smartphone sector continues to account for over 50% of revenue.

On the other hand, the highly profitable Internet Services and IoT products areas also continued to develop very positively. Both sectors recorded significant growth in terms of revenue and gross profit.

The annual report also shows excellent performance of the EV offering. The company has been selling its first own electric car, the SU7, since March 2024. In the second quarter of 2025, the company delivered 81,302 vehicles, corresponding to revenue of 21.3 billion RMB with a significantly improved gross margin of 26.4%.

Xiaomi already met and even exceeded its delivery target in 2024. This positive development continued in the first half of 2025, as Xiaomi sold 157,171 vehicles during this period and also registered 240,000 pre-orders for the YU7-SUV in June 2025.

Xiaomi Stock: Development in Fiscal Year 2024

The growth of Xiaomi stock between early 2024 and early 2025 can be explained by several factors: the excellent operational development in 2024 and the highly successful launch of the first EV, the SU7.

With the introduction of its first electric car, Xiaomi achieved a real coup. Xiaomi delivered a total of 136,854 vehicles in 2024, and this development is also reflected in the price of Xiaomi stocks. The price has risen significantly since the announcement in December 2023.

But not only the push into the electric car market, but also the financial figures for 2024 gave reason for joy at Xiaomi.

Xiaomi recorded strong increases in almost all important financial figures in 2024. Total revenue increased by 35.0% to a record 365.91 billion RMB. Gross profit also developed very positively with a plus of 33.2% to reach 76.56 billion RMB.

Net profit also developed extremely positively in 2024, increasing by 34.9% to 23.58 billion RMB. Even more impressive was the development of adjusted net profit, which increased by 41.3% to 27.