Ethereum Unclosed Contract Analysis: Selling Pressure Reaches Nearly 11-Month High, Key Interpretation of Market Trends

ETH dumping pressure rises to the highest level since November 2024

ETH is currently experiencing sustained selling pressure for several days. According to data monitoring, the current buy/sell recipient ratio shows that the market's dumping intensity has reached the highest level since November 2024, and this indicator may signal an increased risk of short-term market downturn.

Technical Interpretation of Buyer/Seller Acceptance Ratio: When this ratio is below 1, it indicates that there is a significant selling pressure in the market, with traders more inclined to sell ETH at the current price. If this situation persists, it typically creates downward pressure on prices.

Currently, the ETH price is still trading above $4,300, but the selling pressure indicated has had a significant impact on the market performance over the past week. Data shows that ETH has become one of the five largest cryptocurrencies with the biggest decline in the past seven days.

Whale Behavior and Market Liquidity Analysis

market pressure from the end of August to now

Analysis from the data platform shows that ETH has entered a clear selling pressure period since the end of August. The buy/sell ratio of market participants is clearly leaning towards the sellers, indicating that a large number of traders are taking advantage of the current price levels to sell ETH for profit. Nevertheless, ETH still maintains a trading price above $4,300, with its market share remaining around 13.3%.

Unsettled Contracts and Liquidity Distribution

The total amount of ETH open contracts remains around the high level of 27 billion USD, indicating that market participation is still active. According to the derivatives position data from mainstream CEXs, the price of ETH may fluctuate in the range of 4,200 USD to 4,500 USD in the short term, and the current liquidity distribution does not show any significant signs of bearish squeeze.

It is worth noting that the ETH long position on the Hyperliquid platform accounts for 64%, while the long position of Ethena (ENA) exceeds 75%, indicating that some institutional investors still hold a bullish outlook on the medium to long-term trend of ETH.

Capital Flow and Position Structure Changes

Whale Activity Monitoring

Data shows that the transfer activity of large holding addresses (whales) of ETH has significantly increased recently. In the past few days, whales have injected approximately $185 million into the ETH market, but this large capital inflow has not yet translated into new price highs.

At the same time, the number of long-term holding addresses for ETH has increased to 24 million, reflecting some investors' long-term confidence in ETH. This accumulation phenomenon is related to ETH's core position in the DeFi ecosystem, with many investors holding ETH as collateral or for paying network transaction fees.

Seasonal factors impact

Historical data shows that September is usually a relatively weak month for ETH, while October often has better market performance. Considering the current dumping pressure and historical seasonal patterns, ETH trading may become more cautious in the short term.

Market Trends and Key Levels

According to current data analysis, ETH is at a critical decision point, and the price trend may face two main scenarios: a breakout above the resistance level of $5,000, or a downward test of the support area at $3,500.

Currently, market analysts generally believe that ETH trading activity exhibits characteristics of long-term accumulation and short-term profit taking. Despite the obvious short-term dumping pressure, the continuous inflow of ETF and institutional funds, as well as the expansion of the DeFi space, still provide long-term support factors for ETH.

In the upcoming weeks of trading, investors should closely monitor changes in open interest, whale address activity, and shifts in the buy/sell recipient ratio, as these indicators will provide important references for determining the price direction of ETH.