The volatility of Bitcoin has increased — traders are betting on a rise to $145 000 in October.

BTC and Ethereum traders remain optimistic about the market trajectory, despite the corrective movements this week that affected digital assets as a whole.
Market participants estimate a 22% probability that Ethereum will exceed $5 000 by October 31. For Bitcoin, the estimates are even higher: traders are factoring in a 34% chance of a rise above $120 000 by the same deadline.
Long-term forecasts maintain a bullish bias for December.

According to Derive, Ethereum has a 12% chance of surpassing $7 000, while Bitcoin has a 26% probability of rising above $135 000. These estimates show how traders are positioned around potential catalysts despite short-term turbulence.

Optimism follows a surge in volatility, during which Bitcoin and Ether retested levels $110 000 and $4 000 respectively.

According to Derive, record liquidations of $1.7 billion accelerated the movement, raising the implied Volatility of Ethereum from 57% to nearly 70% on Monday. Bitcoin's volatility also increased, reaching around 30%.

Given that BTC traded under below-average volatility last month, Derive founder Nick Forster stated that October could be a turning point as digital asset treasuries prepare for more aggressive activity.

"Traders are preparing for significant rise. For BTC — a large accumulation of call options at strike prices $145 000 and beyond — at $155 000/$170 000 expiring on October 31. For ETH, traders expect a rise of more than 10% with concentration at strike prices $5 000/$5 200," noted Forster.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $113 000, having previously marked a 2-week low of $111 450.