August 8

📈 Core Trend Judgment
1. Bullish Strength Confirmation
- Price breaks through $3,900 (currently $3,897-3,900), moving average system shows a bullish arrangement:
- MA5 ($3,824) > MA10 ($3,742) > MA30 ($3,629)
- Short-term moving average slope is steep (greater than 45°), indicating strong upward momentum.
- Volume validation: Surge in volume when breaking through $3,850 (13.11 million trading volume), exceeding the average volume MA10 (19.05 million), confirming the validity of the breakout.

2. Key Resistance Zone Game
- $3,910 is the current key resistance (previous high congestion area), as shown in the chart, which has been tested twice without holding:
- If the volume breaks through $3,910, it will open up the upward space to $3,950 (1.618 Fibonacci extension level).
- If it falls under pressure, pay attention to the support at $3,850 (MA5 dynamic support) and $3,750 (MA10 + trend line).

3. Divergence of Technical Indicator Signals
- MACD risks:
DIF (64.4) is still above DEA (35.3), but the MACD histogram has been continuously shortening (29.11→29.05), indicating a weakening of upward momentum, so be cautious of a potential top divergence.
- Overbought not at the peak: RSI does not show directly, but price approaching previous highs requires caution against sell pressure.

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🔄 Today's Market Analysis and Trading Strategy
✅ Bullish breakout scenario (probability 60%)
- Trigger condition: 4-hour K-line closes firmly above $3,910, and trading volume remains above MA10 (>19 million).
- Target range: $3,950 → $4,000 (psychological barrier + maximum pain point of options).
- Strategy: Breakthrough momentarily with a light position to go long, stop loss set at $3,890.

⚠️ Callback correction scenario (40% probability)
- Trigger conditions: $3,910 continues to face pressure and the MACD bars continue to shorten.
- Downward support: $3,850 (MA5) → If this level is lost, look for $3,750 (MA10 + daily trend support).
- Strategy: Short in the $3,905-3,910 area, stop loss at $3,930, target at $3,850.

🛡️ Sound Risk Control Recommendations
- Key monitoring signal:
1. Can the next 4-hour candlestick closing price (Beijing time 10:30) hold above $3,900;
2. Can the MACD histogram be magnified again (repair momentum).
- Position Management: Single trade leverage ≤ 5 times, with stop loss strictly controlled within 1.5%.

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⚡️ Risk Warning
1. Settlement Intensive Area:
- Above $3,900, there is a gathering of $180 million in short positions' liquidation line (Bybit on-chain data), and a breakout will trigger a short squeeze.
- A strong liquidation line for over $120 million in long positions is lurking around $3,750, and a sharp drop could trigger a sell-off.
2. Event Disturbance:
- Federal Reserve officials will speak tonight at 22:00. If they signal a "delay in interest rate cuts," it may intensify volatility.

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💎 Conclusion
> Ethereum is in a critical window period before breaking the previous high of $3,910, and the short-term direction depends on three points:
> 1. Can $3,910 break through with volume (volume criteria: single 4-hour candlestick trading volume > 20 million);
> 2. Is the MACD histogram strengthening again (the current momentum decay signal needs to be fixed);
> 3. The MA5 dynamic support at $3,850 is the defensive strength (the last line of defense for bulls).
>
> Operation Priority: Breakthrough Long Position > Buy on Dips > Counter-Trend Short Position.
>
> Please refer to real-time data from the trading platform, and the strategy needs to be adjusted dynamically. If there are any latest K-line changes, information can be supplemented and analyzed with second-level updates at any time.