QCP Capital: Multiple reasons have led to a decrease in current market Fluctuation, and the trade war has entered a countdown to restart.

On June 19, QCP Capital posted on its official channel that in terms of macro events, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged as widely expected. However, the Policy Committee remained hawkish, emphasizing that near-term inflation expectations remain high and citing tariffs as a key upside risk. Officials reiterated their preference for a wait-and-see strategy to wait for further clarity on the path of inflation. The market’s sensitivity to geopolitical headlines continues to decline, including ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran. The countdown to the trade war has begun. As the July 9 deadline for the EU tariff moratorium approaches, the U.S. has reached just one deal out of nearly 195 potential trading partners. Negotiations have stalled, leaks have become a rehash, and the market’s reaction to the news of progressive tariffs has become increasingly dull. The following milestones remain crucial: 14 July: EU intends to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US 12 August: End of 90-day tariff truce between China and the United States 31 August: Expiration of long-term tariff exemptions on Chinese importsThese can trigger a phased decline in risk assets. However, the QCP’s baseline scenario remains optimistic: given the convergence of interests between the two sides, the US-China trade talks are more likely to move towards a stable outcome, which will provide support for the continued rally in risk assets. At present, the market risk reversal indicator remains negative (put options are trading at a premium to call options), reflecting the market’s cautious layout and expectations of a short-term correction.