The latest released dot plot is a positive signal for the market, especially against the backdrop of current widespread pessimistic expectations. The market originally expected only one rate cut this year, but the dot plot has adjusted expectations to two, indicating that the Federal Reserve's stance is gradually shifting. The current focus has turned to confirming the timing of the rate cut – whether it will be the first cut in September or October.

If the expectation is to start the rate cut cycle in July, then the economic data after June must show a significant deterioration trend; only then can it prompt Powell to adjust the policy stance. Another possibility is that the Federal Reserve actively creates a weaker economic environment to pave the way for a rate cut in July, but the probability of this strategy being realized is very low, so one should not hold overly high expectations for an early rate cut.

From Powell's statements, the U.S. economy remains relatively healthy, and there is no urgency to cut interest rates; The Federal Reserve (FED) can continue to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Although policymakers will continue to monitor various data and weigh them cautiously, a rate cut in the second half of the year is basically certain, with the key now being to determine the specific month. Investors should focus on the upcoming non-farm payroll reports in the next few months, which will serve as an important reference for the FED's decision-making.