After 48 hours of emergency consultations between the United States and China in London, a temporary trade easing agreement was reached, temporarily alleviating concerns about the trade war affecting the global economy.

According to the latest protocol, the United States has agreed to ease some restrictions on rare earths, significantly reducing tariffs on China from 145% to 30%; China has also restarted rare earth export operations in Shenzhen, with companies like Jinli Permanent Magnet obtaining export licenses, and will reduce tariffs on the U.S. from 125% to 10%. However, this protocol has a deadline—if further breakthroughs are not achieved by August 10, both parties will automatically revert to the original high tariffs.

Despite a seemingly easing surface, both sides are actually still in a tense state. The United States has maintained its bans on chip and aircraft equipment, and the White House has emphasized that "34% reciprocal tariffs have been supported by the court," while former President Trump has hinted at the possibility of reigniting trade conflicts at any time. China, on the other hand, holds significant leverage - in May of this year, exports to the U.S. hit the worst record since the pandemic, plummeting by 34.5%, and it is using rare earth resources to force the U.S. back to the negotiating table.

The trade tensions have led the World Bank to lower its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3%. European Central Bank President Lagarde warned: "If the trade war continues, the global economy will enter intensive care." Meanwhile, the international community and the aerospace industry, including the EU, Japan, and Mexico, are putting pressure on both sides to "cease fire."

Analysts have compared this protocol to a "Syrian-style ceasefire," believing that the fundamental deadlock over mineral resources has not been resolved. The sustainability of the protocol entirely depends on the will of the leaders and is essentially just a "temporary truce" rather than a "true reconciliation."

The market reacted violently and differentially - rare earth-related stocks soared, and Shenzhen-related sectors performed outstandingly; The U.S. dollar exchange rate has fallen, and the fluctuation pattern is abnormal; U.S. companies, on the other hand, have adopted a "two-sided strategy": they ostensibly welcome "probation", but secretly they have stepped up their stockpiling of supplies in case of a possible "thunderstorm" in August.

Despite a temporary easing, the global economy still faces risks, Trump's "tariff weapon" is ready, and China's rare earth countermeasures are also on a countdown. The global economy seems to be gambling in a dangerous game of whether a "trade war will ultimately break out."