BTC Evening Strategy: How to Grasp the Bull vs Bear Battle After the Breakthrough?

The recent trend of BTC can be described as "crazy," with key levels being broken one after another. I wonder if the short sellers, the "iron-headed kids," can still hold on? The brutality of the market lies in the fact that the more the bears increase their positions, the more momentum there is for the bulls— the trend has reversed. At this moment, shorting can only capture short-term pullbacks; trying to short in this situation is akin to going against the trend!

1. Key Resistance Levels and Breakthrough Logic

At 5 AM, BTC paused its momentum after reaching $110,653, just $1,300 short of its previous high. Why not break through in one go? The technical analysis shows that $110,723 is a strong resistance level on the daily chart, and it is difficult to achieve this solely through capital momentum; the following conditions must be met:

1. Major positive news (such as policy loosening, large institutional inflows);

2. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy shifts to easing.
Conclusion: Once the resistance level of $110,723 is broken with volume, BTC will surely set a new historical high!

2. Trading Strategies and Key Levels

1. Right-side trading signals:

◦ Going long: Breakout with volume above $109,425 → chase long on the right side;

◦ Short: Break below $109,030 and unable to recover on the pullback → Short on the right side;

◦ Core: Pay close attention to trading volume; be cautious with breakouts/breakdowns on low volume.

2. Key Levels Across Multiple Timeframes:

◦ Hourly level: Break above 109,688 USD → Looking up at 110,386 → 110,842 USD;

◦ 4-hour level: Breaking below $109,057 → Looking to $108,031 → $106,816.

3. Trend Line Defense and Position Management

• Trendline Protection: The hourly level has not broken the yellow arrow trendline, making long positions relatively safe;

• Position reduction suggestion: close to the previous high, the risk-return ratio decreases, it is recommended to take the initiative to reduce positions to avoid the sharp drawdown of the "fishtail market";

• Stop Loss Iron Rule: The closing price of the yellow arrow candlestick is the last defense line for long positions. Once it falls below this level, the trend may weaken, and you need to exit quickly.

4. Risk Warning: Trade Talks Become the Biggest Variable

Uncertain factors: The outcome of trade talks between Dongda and the Americans may trigger fluctuations in the market of thousands of dollars:

• Negotiation: Bullish market, BTC may take the opportunity to hit previous highs;

• Break: Under panic sentiment, the risk of a short-term pullback has greatly increased.
Countermeasures: Be sure to set stop-losses, adjust positions flexibly based on news, and do not blindly bet on the direction!

Final reminder: Although the trend is strong, risks are hidden. Preserving profits and controlling drawdowns is the ultimate goal of trading!