#ETH 🔴 Short positions dominated strategy (60% probability)

Bounce to near EMA5 (2,504.86):

If the K-line shows a long upper shadow + RSI6 < 35, lightly short positions.

Target: Bollinger lower band 2,482, break down to see 2,450.

Stop loss: above EMA15 (2,516).

🟢 Long positions counterattack conditions (probability 30%)

Volume breaks above the Bollinger middle band (2,517.29):

Requirements: Trading volume doubles (Vol>2500 ETH) + MACD bars continuously expand.

Action: Follow up when breaking and retracing to the middle track, target EMA60 (2,556), stop loss at 2,495.

⚪ Watch signal (probability 10%)

The price continues to fluctuate within a narrow range of 2,482-2,505, and:

RSI6 is stuck in the 30-40 range, and KDJ has flattened out without a golden cross;

The MACD bars show no significant directional change.

 

Key Points for Monitoring Market

Bollinger lower band support strength:

If 2,482 does not break after 3 tests, it may trigger a sharp rebound.

Volume anomaly signal:

Sharp drop with high volume (Vol > 3000 ETH): Panic selling, beware of accelerated decline;

Volume rebound (Vol > 2000 ETH): signs of short positions covering.

Associated Market Verification:

Monitor whether Bitcoin holds above 104,000 USDT (previous low support) and if the ETH/BTC exchange rate stops falling.