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QCP Capital: The current market volatility continues to decline, and the company’s choice of Bitcoin reserves may provide new structural buying support for the market.
On May 28, QCP Capital posted on its official channel that volatility in most asset classes continues to decline, and the market has entered a quiet period due to the lack of meaningful news flow and macroeconomic data. While the news continues, the market seems to be becoming more and more numb to the negative news, and the headlines that once could have provoked a violent reaction are now lightly carried over. U.S. Treasury yields retreated after last week's fiscal turmoil triggered by the so-called "Big Beautiful Act." However, the debt-to-GDP ratio remains above 120%, and the new bill is expected to add another $3.8 trillion to the nation's debt. The 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields have fallen below 4.5% and 5.0%, respectively, and the Japanese 30-year yields have also fallen back below 3%. These levels remain historically elevated, but short-term risks have eased. Market focus turns to the upcoming US 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year Treasury auctions in June. Meanwhile, Japan's Ministry of Finance will issue 40-year government bonds today, and the 30-year variety is scheduled to be issued next week. The Ministry of Finance is well aware of the market's resistance to long-term bonds and appears to be prepared to adjust its issuance strategy to curb volatility at the long end of the yield curve. Ironically, the market is now in a "just right" range: the latest data is largely unaffected by the tariffs introduced last month. It will take time for businesses and consumers to adjust their pricing and spending patterns, and it may not be until Q3 to see these changes in the data. The Fed seems to agree with this view, choosing to ignore recent data unless the economy deteriorates sharply. Senator Lomis's wide-ranging rhetoric about stablecoins and Bitcoin's strategic reserves has reignited hopes for substantial progress in cryptocurrency policy. Progress on the digital asset program has been tepid since the administration took office, and this meeting is likely to provide the momentum needed to restart White House engagement. In addition, Trump Media plans to raise $2.5 billion to join the ranks of companies that are building bitcoin reserves. If the meeting can generate momentum, we may see more companies follow the example of Strategy and Metaplanet and provide new structural buying for the market.