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Today, the cryptocurrency market has seen a slight rebound, with Bitcoin briefly rising to $84,000 and Ethereum returning above $1,800, ending the recent prolonged period of low performance. TON's daily increase reached 4.72%, and sectors like RWA also followed suit, reflecting a slight easing of market sentiment from extreme panic. However, this rebound does little to mask the overall weakness of the market in the first quarter. Due to concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and policy uncertainty, the cryptocurrency industry has experienced its most challenging quarter since the FTX collapse in 2022, with the market fear index remaining at 34 for several consecutive days, and investors maintaining a cautious attitude towards macroeconomic pressures such as high inflation and debt risks, as well as regulatory uncertainties.

The direct reason for today's rebound may be the capital's chase for local hotspots, but the deeper contradiction lies in:
1. Policy expectation gap: The "crypto-friendly policies" promised by the Trump administration (such as replacing the SEC chairman and promoting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve) are being implemented slowly, and the market's optimistic sentiment towards regulatory easing is fading.

2. Liquidity Bottleneck: Institutional funds are concentrated in low-risk targets such as Bitcoin ETFs, while the altcoin market relies on the rotation of existing funds and lacks incremental support.

3. Macroeconomic suppression: Core inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target, and risk appetite is limited in a high interest rate environment, suppressing the upside potential of crypto assets.

Looking at the market outlook, its short-term trend needs to follow the U.S. non-farm payroll data and policy signals from the crypto summit this Friday. In addition, the Layer 2 sector is expected to rebound with the Ethereum technical upgrade. In the short term, moderate participation in hot sector rebounds is advisable, but leverage should be controlled (within 3-5 times) and stablecoins should be increased to guard against black swan events. Investors need to balance defensive and offensive strategies to cope with future volatility.