(Morning) Last weekend, the US market fell significantly due to rising concerns over tariffs and inflation | Market Overview | Moneyクリ Money Forward Securities investment information and media useful for money.

【US Stock Market】New York Market

NY Dow: 41,583.90 ▼715.80 (3/28)

NASDAQ: 17,322.99 ▼481.04 (3/28)

1. Overview

Last weekend, the three major indices in the US stock market all fell significantly. Amid ongoing concerns over tariffs imposed by the US administration, the PCE core deflator announced in the morning exceeded market expectations, while personal spending fell short of expectations, and the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index was also revised downward, increasing concerns about stagflation and pushing down the market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average started trading down 53 points and then significantly widened its decline. In the latter part of trading, it fell to a loss of 769 points, ultimately closing down 715 points at 41,583, marking a three-day losing streak. Additionally, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index ended down 481 points (2.7%) at 17,322 points, and the S&P 500 Index closed down 112 points (2.0%) at 5,580 points, both also recording a three-day losing streak.

2. Economic Indicators, etc.

In February, the PCE deflator increased by 2.5% year-on-year, matching market expectations and showing the same growth rate as the previous month. On the other hand, the PCE core deflator, which the FRB (Federal Reserve Board) places more emphasis on as an inflation indicator, excluding the volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and accelerating from the previous month's 2.7% increase. Additionally, personal consumption expenditures rose by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the previous month's results but falling short of the market expectation of around a 0.5% increase. Personal income increased by 0.8% month-on-month, surpassing both market expectations and the previous result. The final value of the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index for March was revised down to 57.0 from the preliminary value of 57.9.

3. Sector Trends

In the sectoral stock price indices of the S&P 500, only the utilities sector rose by less than 1% among all 11 sectors. On the other hand, the remaining 10 sectors declined, with particularly large drops in communication services and consumer discretionary, which fell by more than 3%. Additionally, information technology and industrials also dropped by more than 2%, while financials and materials fell by over 1%.

4. Individual Stock Trends

In the Dow average components, out of 30 stocks, four stocks including Merck [MRK], Amgen [AMGN], Johnson & Johnson [JNJ], and UnitedHealth Group [UNH] rose, with Merck rising nearly 2%. On the other hand, 26 stocks declined, particularly Amazon.com [AMZN], which fell by more than 4%. Additionally, Nike [NKE], Boeing [BA], and Microsoft [MSFT] each fell by more than 3%, while nine stocks including Caterpillar [CAT], Goldman Sachs [GS], and Salesforce [CRM] fell by more than 2%.

Outside of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, insurer AWR Berkeley [WRB] rose 7.5% to top the S&P 500 index gainers. MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings (8725) announced on March 28 that it will acquire 15% of the company's common shares through its subsidiary, Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Co., Ltd., and enter into an alliance and cooperative relationship. Construction company Argan [AGX] also rose 19.9% after reporting fourth-quarter earnings that beat market expectations. Meanwhile, apparel company Lululemon Athletica (LULU) fell 14.2% after reporting fourth-quarter earnings that beat market expectations but lower-than-expected guidance. Domino's Pizza [DPZ] and PayPal Holdings (PYPL) are down more than 5%, while Alphabet [GOOGL], Palantir Technologies [PLTR], Netflix [NFLX] and Meta Platforms [META] are down more than 4%, and Intel [INTC], ServiceNow [NOW] and Tesla [TSLA] are among those who are down more than 3%.

5. Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, etc.

The US long-term interest rate has decreased by 0.11% from the previous day to 4.25%. The dollar-yen is fluctuating around the mid-149 yen range.

VIEW POINT: Today's Perspective

Today, the Japanese market is expected to start lower, following the significant decline of the US Stock Market at the end of last week. In this context, the Nikkei average is anticipated to drop below the psychological threshold of 37,000 yen, widening its decline.

Starting this week, we will enter the April market, and since it coincides with the beginning of the month, the release of key economic indicators will follow in succession, beginning with the March US employment statistics. Additionally, on April 2, additional tariffs on imported automobiles are expected to be implemented in the US, so the market this week is likely to remain volatile.

(Monex Securities Financial Intelligence Department, Koji Okamoto)