Evening Market Outlook

Bitcoin is steadily rising, so why did it suddenly break down and fall back?
Never trade based on subjective guesses about the market; only act on visible market trends and what you can confidently control. Remember: the market is always right, and both rises and falls have logic. The recent sudden plunge likely involves hidden negative factors not yet apparent in the chart.

Looking at the market pattern, the area marked by the arrow above shows a double top pattern gradually forming. The trend not only effectively broke below the key support level of 78,434 but also pierced through the bearish flag pattern. Currently, this flag zone will serve as a short-term key resistance.
Only if the trend re-enters the flag pattern area can it have a chance to break through the 78,434 resistance, unlock a secondary rebound, and then challenge previous highs or test new highs;
If sustained pressure prevents a return within the flag pattern zone, the bullish rebound will be halted, and the market will further decline, testing the key support around 77,172.

Once the support at 77,172 is broken, the hourly bullish trend structure will be completely dismantled, and the subsequent trend will likely retrace to the low zone around 76,225.

Short-term Market Forecast:
Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate and consolidate between the support at 77,172 and the lower edge of the flag pattern, waiting for the US stock market to open before making a new directional decision.
This decline is a volume-driven pullback, not a decline on low volume, and the chart has not shown a long lower shadow indicating a bottom. Therefore, the current downward space has not been fully exhausted.
Only a strong rebound that stabilizes above the 78,434 resistance can end the downward momentum; otherwise, after a volume-driven decline, the probability of a forced reversal and rally is very low. Do not blindly expect bullish gains.

Key Short-term Support and Resistance Levels

✅ Go long on the right side: Break through with volume and strength, stabilize above 77,825, then add positions
If the hourly chart stabilizes at this level, the rebound targets are: 78,551 — 79,455. If it cannot break through 77,825, bullish momentum will be limited.

✅ Go short on the right side: Break below 77,313 with volume, no strength to recover and continue the downtrend
Once the 4-hour chart breaks below 77,387, the downward target is: 76,256 — 74,978

All trades should strictly include stop-loss orders, follow the trend, and manage risk carefully.