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I just saw that Circle's shares exploded to $90 before pulling back a bit to $87. But what really catches the eye here is how analysts are praising the company's performance. After releasing the fourth-quarter results, the stock rose about 30%, showing that the market is really buying into this story.
What analysts are really praising is revenue diversification. Bernstein maintains an outperform rating and set a target price of $190, arguing that Circle has managed to clearly differentiate itself in the crypto market. It’s not just stablecoins, you know? The company is expanding into infrastructure and generating revenues with much better margins.
The numbers speak for themselves. Transaction revenue continues to grow, including rewards that Circle receives as a super validator of the Canton network. Meanwhile, the proportion of USDC directly hosted on Circle’s platform rose to 17% of the total in circulation, up from 14% in the previous quarter. This shows that its own ecosystem is strengthening.
For the future, the company projects that USDC will continue to grow at an annual rate of about 40%. But the most interesting thing is that revenue from other businesses, besides reserves, is expected to reach around $170 million in 2026, compared to $110 million in 2025. Basically, doubling non-reserve revenue in one year.
Analysts are also praising the expansion into new products. There’s the Arc platform, Circle Payments Network, and now automated payment capabilities for AI agents. Mizuho also points out that with stablecoins entering new scenarios, like predictive markets such as Polymarket, Circle’s revenue structure has much more room to diversify.
In the end, the market is watching whether Circle can really maintain this balanced revenue structure while expanding its ecosystem. But based on recent performance, it seems they are on the right track.