Recently, I've seen people make a chain of reasoning like "Stablecoin supply increases = ETF will pump = OTC money is coming in," which sounds smooth, but honestly, correlation does not equal causation... An increase in stablecoins could be due to market makers, arbitrage, airdrops, or just moving from other chains, and it's not the same as "it's about to rise." I've also been impulsive myself—seeing the curve shake, I get itchy fingers, only to buy and find out they were just swapping wallets to wash trades, awkward.

And that on-chain data tool's tagging system, recently, hasn't it also been criticized as "lagging / easily misleading"? Anyway, now when I see prompts like "Smart money buying," I first question: is it really smart, or is the tag not updated yet...

My mom asked me a couple of days ago: "ETF isn't big money legally? So isn't it stable?" I could only reply half-heartedly: Big money also observes first, also rotates, it doesn't rush in as soon as the gate opens... For now, just be cautious, avoid overthinking, and wait for confirmation.