‍#美伊谈判陷入僵局 The US-Iran negotiations have collapsed! Global inflation alerts have sounded, and the world economy is entering a critical turning point The storm in the Strait of Hormuz is reigniting. What will happen to oil prices, stock markets, and supply chains? According to the latest official news, negotiations between the US and Iran scheduled for this weekend have been officially canceled. This high-stakes game in the Middle East, which has been gripping global nerves, has once again fallen into a deadlock. As of Beijing time April 26, 2026, this round of US-Iran conflict has lasted nearly two months. The blockade of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the continuous surge in energy prices are transmitting through the global industrial chain layer by layer. A profound shift concerning inflation, growth, and the global economic order has already begun. Negotiations have completely cooled off, core conflicts remain unresolved, and both sides are stuck in a dilemma On Saturday local time, US President Trump explicitly announced the cancellation of the scheduled trip of Special Envoy Witkov and his son-in-law Kushner to Pakistan for negotiations with Iran. Earlier that day, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi had finished his visit to Pakistan and headed to Oman. Iran explicitly stated that Araghchi’s trip was never arranged for talks with the US side. From the outset, this negotiation was doomed to fail, rooted in a severe lack of mutual trust and three major irreconcilable core disagreements: control of the Strait of Hormuz, the direction of Iran’s nuclear program, and the conditions for lifting sanctions on Iran. More pragmatic difficulties have pushed this game into a deadlock where “neither side can afford to step back.” For the US, soaring oil prices have triggered domestic inflation backlash, compounded by political pressure from mid-term elections, making it unwilling to allow the conflict to escalate indefinitely or make substantial concessions in negotiations; for Iran, two months of ongoing conflict have caused damage to domestic infrastructure and significant consumption of strategic resources, yet it remains unwilling to compromise on core sovereignty and interests. Under this tug-of-war, global market uncertainty is being amplified infinitely. Energy prices surge, igniting inflation. The IMF warns: global inflation rate will rise to 4.4%. The most immediate impact of the conflict has been in the energy market. As a key passage for nearly one-third of global crude oil shipping, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has directly caused a global crude oil supply shortage, with Brent crude approaching $120 per barrel. The surge in energy prices is transmitting through the industrial chain without dead ends: At the consumer level, in March, the US CPI energy component increased by 12.6% year-on-year, and the Eurozone Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) energy component rose to 4.9% year-on-year, putting pressure on transportation, chemicals, and daily consumer goods prices; At the production level, rising oil and gas prices have directly increased costs for fertilizers, agricultural products, and industrial goods. Urea prices in the Middle East surged 19%-28% in March. If the conflict continues, global fertilizer prices could rise another 15%-20%, directly threatening agricultural output in emerging markets and increasing global food security risks; At the cross-border transmission level, imported inflation is spreading globally. Energy-importing countries in Asia like Japan and South Korea, and European industrial nations like Germany, are facing unprecedented cost pressures, eroding manufacturing competitiveness. The latest IMF forecast issues a clear warning: in 2026, the global inflation rate will rise to 4.4%, up 0.3 percentage points from 2025. The global fight against inflation faces a major setback. The global economy is slowing down, with multiple risks intensifying. On the other hand, high inflation continues to exert pressure on economic growth. The IMF has sharply downgraded its 2026 global growth forecast from 3.3% to 3.1%. This conflict is exerting comprehensive pressure on the global economy through a “physical shock → price transmission → policy constraints” three-layer pathway. The first layer, shipping blockade directly impacts trade flow. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven the Baltic Dry Index (BDTI) higher, systematically raising global logistics costs and severely damaging supply chain efficiency; The second layer, cost diffusion, is squeezing economic vitality. Rising energy prices continue to spread to manufacturing and consumption, compressing corporate profits and weakening residents’ purchasing power, leading to synchronized declines in supply and demand; The third layer, inflation constraints, is locking in monetary policy space. Under high inflation, global central banks are forced to delay rate cuts. Market expectations suggest the Fed may only be able to cut rates once in 2026. The absence of easing policies deprives the global economy of an important growth support. More concerning is that behind the slowdown in growth, the fragility of the global economy is rapidly exposing itself: current account deficits in Japan, Southeast Asia, and other energy-importing countries are worsening; sovereign debt default risks in sub-Saharan Africa and other vulnerable economies are rising sharply; capital outflows from emerging markets are intensifying. The resilience of the global economy is under severe test. Behind the V-shaped rebound in US stocks, market logic has completely changed Amid the conflict, global capital markets have experienced highly dramatic swings. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, the US stock market has shown a V-shaped pattern: the S&P 500 initially fell more than 15%, but by mid-April 2026, it had fully recovered and hit a new all-time high, surpassing 7,000 points. This countertrend rally is not due to market ignoring risks but a complete shift in trading logic. Trump’s “maximum pressure — compromise” game, with his social media statements as the core “trigger,” has created arbitrage opportunities for algorithmic trading, but has not changed the resilience of the US stock market. Currently, the market has shifted from initial panic mode to a “risk re-pricing” phase. For investors, two core directions are becoming clearer: If subsequent ceasefire agreements are reached and oil prices stabilize, technology stocks and AI-related sectors are likely to lead a structural market rally again; Be highly alert to the recurrence of geopolitical policies, avoiding overbetting on short-term news, especially guarding against the risk of deep corrections in high-valuation sectors like AI and tech in the US stock market if the conflict continues to escalate. The long-term shift has already begun. The global order is undergoing a profound reconstruction. The US-Iran conflict is not just about short-term oil price fluctuations and market volatility but also about a deep restructuring of global economic and political order, with three major long-term trends now irreversible. First, the fundamental logic of the global supply chain has shifted from “efficiency first” over the past thirty years to “security first,” leading to a long-term rise in energy and logistics costs, and a complete rewriting of corporate globalization strategies; Second, the hollowing out of US hegemony is further exposed. The foundation of the petrodollar is weakening, and Middle Eastern countries are accelerating the exploration of diversified energy settlement paths. The process of diversifying the global monetary system is gaining speed; Third, global financial risks are continuously accumulating. Geopolitical uncertainties, high inflation and monetary policy constraints, and the correction pressures on overvalued assets are stacking up. Any loss of control in one link could trigger a chain reaction in global financial markets. The storm in the Strait of Hormuz is not over, and the direction of the global economy is at a critical crossroads. Between growth, inflation, and security, policymakers worldwide need to find new balances. For us caught in this upheaval, understanding the trends and respecting risks are the keys to navigating the cycle.