Opinion: Insider information is precisely the key to market prediction, and those with inside knowledge will drive prices toward the truth.

ME News Report, April 26 (UTC+8), forecast market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are facing increasing regulatory pressure, including law enforcement agencies in multiple countries and local governments in the United States beginning to focus on and plan to curb insider trading. However, George Mason University professor and one of the founders of prediction market theory, Robin Hanson, stated that insider information is crucial for prediction markets, and strictly banning insider trading is wrong. He pointed out that the authenticity of prices driven by informed traders is at the core of prediction markets, providing accurate information to aid decision-making. Hanson also suggested that while contracts can protect secrets, the flow of information is equally important and should not exclude public participation in the market due to information control. He recommends market participants assume risks themselves, participate in a manner similar to playing poker, and emphasizes that prediction markets as a democratic information aggregation tool are not suitable for everyone. (Source: MLion)