Gasoline prices were on track for their 12th consecutive week below $3 per gallon on Wednesday, with prices expected to rise as the spring driving season approaches.

As of Wednesday, at least 43 states posted average pump prices below the $3 mark, according to AAA data. The price of gasoline first dipped below $3 per gallon in December to hover near a four-year low.

Over the past month however, the national average has risen $0.10 from its four-year low to $2.92 per gallon.

“Gasoline prices have been moving up, predominantly following crude oil prices,” Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates said.

Still, the national average is about $0.24 lower than a year ago and expected to stay below last year’s levels, even as prices climb heading into the spring driving season.

“This year is mired with a glut of crude and very little refining downtime, so I would imagine that we might expect about half the normal increase,” said Tom Kloza, analyst for Gulf Oil.

Kloza predicts the national average could climb to $3.15-$3.30 gallon in the coming months.

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This time of year typically brings seasonal price increases as refiners prepare for the spring driving season and transition to more expensive summer-blend gasoline.

That shift begins first on the West Coast. The move to summer-grade gasoline in California started earlier this month, where the state average moved from up by $0.38 over the past month to $4.58 per gallon.

California currently has the highest price of gasoline due to taxes and fees and less refinery capacity compared to prior years.

“The rest of the country will begin transitioning in March, and over the next few months prices are likely to rise by about $0.15 per gallon,” Lipow said.

Analysts say the trajectory of gasoline prices going forward will also depend largely on geopolitical risks.

Crude futures jumped 3% on Wednesday as peace talks between the Russia and Ukraine collapsed and Vice President JD Vance indicated Iran is not willing to recognize some of President Trump’s “red lines” related to Tehran’s nuclear program.

A report from Axios on Wednesday subsequently stated the Trump administration may be getting closer to a major war with Iran.

Oil prices have been on an upward trend since December, reaching their highest level since September last month after the US warned Iran it could face military strikes if it does not negotiate a new nuclear agreement.

Gasoline prices are on track for their 12th straight week below $3 per gallon. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.

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