#美伊谈判陷入僵局 Understanding the Nature of the Dollar Tides from This Round of US-Iran Conflict

Who won in Trump’s latest antics during the US-Iran conflict?
Currently, it seems the United States has indeed won.
(For now) Here, "the United States" refers to Trump's behind-the-scenes bosses, not the American public.
First, US stocks performed the best among major global markets. Some broad indices rose nearly 20% over 19 trading days, and the semiconductor index soared ahead. During the same period, it increased about 230%.
Now, look at European stocks?
For now, they’re not doing well. Mainly because Europe is far more sensitive to energy prices than the US. Due to tense Middle East tensions, Brent crude oil prices remain high (around $100), and natural gas prices fluctuate significantly. Europe has no premium on energy prices. High energy costs translate into higher operating costs for companies and inflation pressures. This causes markets to lower Europe’s economic growth expectations. At this point, the European Central Bank might still maintain a hawkish stance. If you have capital, where would you choose? Europe? The US? (This doesn’t even include the possibility that Ukraine could be overwhelmed by Russia, which would pose a direct threat to Europe.) Secondly, the US energy, weapons, and electrical equipment manufacturers are profiting immensely from the US-Iran conflict.
Furthermore, the US isn’t afraid of high inflation. Many friends might say: How is that possible! When US inflation rises, they raise interest rates, and everything collapses. So Trump doesn’t want high inflation.
The stock market reflects current circumstances and future expectations. The real goal behind the US’s power is debt reduction and issuing new debt; rising inflation is an inevitable path.
Without high inflation, how can the denominator grow large? If the denominator doesn’t grow, debt ratios can’t be lowered. How can more debt be issued? War is the best current method to boost inflation.
Blocking the straits can make Southeast Asia and Europe’s economies look worse than the US, while East Asia has small disruptions, Europe faces Russia’s fighting, and the Middle East has small-scale conflicts. In this context, if you have hundreds of billions or more in USD to invest globally, where would you put your money? Isn’t it only the US that’s the safest and most technologically advanced homeland right now? (Meaning the best growth potential.) During the last extreme inflation phase, US stocks didn’t perform well, but others recovered quickly and steadily.
This round of sharp US stock market gains, from another perspective, has created a safety cushion for future declines.
The current US strategy is to stabilize the stock market, boost oil prices, and block the straits. Support Japan, Israel, Ukraine. The strategy is very clear.
The next step should be to boost inflation, raise unemployment, and then cut interest rates. As long as unemployment rises above 5%, it can trigger the threshold where even high inflation prompts rate hikes. At this point, cutting rates might even cause the dollar to rise (as in 90-91, 08-09, 10-12). The tasks of issuing debt and reducing debt will be smoothly completed. Then, another reshuffle begins.
You and I, ordinary people, besides watching the spectacle, should also try to earn some retirement money within this dollar tide. Tides are a kind of unnatural pattern—when will it break? It depends on when the US’s debt issuance and debt reduction game can no longer continue, when they play the ultimate rogue. The scale of 40 trillion yuan (roughly $6 trillion) isn’t yet at the point of being unsustainable. During this process, understanding the big trend is key to earning peace of mind money.