$BTC The short-term chart shows a symmetrical triangle convergence structure. The core trading range in the short term focuses on the upper and lower boundaries of 77,000–78,000. On a larger scale, the support level of the upward-channel trend line is around 76,500. If it is effectively broken down, there is a risk of trend reversal in the structure.

In terms of market sentiment, there is a strong consensus expectation for a bullish breakout above 80,000, but you should be wary that the main funds may use public sentiment to implement market control, alternately squeezing shorts / killing longs to harvest. Contract data shows that the momentum of long positions is gradually weakening, while short positions keep increasing. The contract weighted funding rate has been negative for a long time, passively raising the cost of holding short positions. This makes an extreme short-squeeze scenario more likely to trigger. Combined with the liquidation map, near the 80,000 level large short positions have accumulated and been liquidated. In the near term, funding rates have shown clear signs of turning positive, and the short-term battle between bulls and bears has entered a critical point.

From a medium- to long-term structural perspective, the 60,000 area this round is unlikely to form a bear bottom. First, the overall trend shows a wedge-shaped upward formation, and the probability of a downward break at the end is significantly higher than that of continuing the upward movement. Second, the spot holdings and follow-through strength around 60,000 are relatively weak, lacking solid bottom support. It is recommended to avoid chasing rallies or selling in panic; only respond after a trend breakout / breakdown confirms.

The macro market is clearly influenced by geopolitical factors. Previously, “Trump” delayed the ceasefire and pushed the market into a one-sided rally. However, even after a rebound, crude oil prices remain higher than pre-war levels. Under macro pressure, the crypto market has strengthened against the trend, showing a clear sentiment divergence. Ceasefire negotiations are likely to be long-term and subject to repeated setbacks, so it is difficult to reach an agreement in the short term in one go. With the June midterm elections of “Trump” approaching, there may be a severe impact on the crypto market. This year’s global macro events are frequent, and market uncertainty is rising. Before the bottom structure is clearly confirmed, it is advised to watch more and act less; don’t chase the last penny.#加密市场行情震荡