#美伊谈判陷入僵局 The market has been scared again by the US and Iran

After a stalemate in bombings in March, the US and Iran both announced a ceasefire on April 8, and held the first round of talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 12. This round did not result in a formal agreement but reached some consensus on certain issues. Due to the unsuccessful negotiations, the US applied further pressure.
On April 14, the US officially blockaded the Strait of Hormuz: announcing that any ships leaving Iranian ports or destined for Iranian ports would be detained by the US military.
On April 19, the US military forcibly intercepted and took control of an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, boarding and searching the vessel.
On April 22, the US Central Command announced that it had intercepted 29 ships, demanding they turn around or return to port. Iran wavered on this issue for a time. On April 17, Iran’s foreign minister announced the Strait of Hormuz was open to all commercial ships, a message later confirmed by Trump on social media; the next day, the situation reversed, with Iran’s military spokesperson claiming the US violated the ceasefire agreement, and the Strait of Hormuz was closed again. The Revolutionary Guard also attacked an Indian vessel attempting to pass through.
The Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a statement saying Iran is determined to control the passage through the Strait of Hormuz until the war is completely over and regional peace is achieved. Both sides agreed to hold a second round of talks on April 22, but each side found reasons to refuse. Iran believed the US violated the ceasefire agreement and protested the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; the US believed Iran was too internally divided to have a unified stance, so the talks were postponed. Trump also announced a ceasefire of 3 to 5 days that day, but later denied any specific deadline during an interview.
Currently, the news is quite chaotic, with both sides releasing contradictory reports, lies, or rapidly changing truths. In the face of such confusing information, what we need to do is step back, retreat to that unchanging place. As Zhuangzi said: “He who has no equal, is called the pivot of the Way. The pivot begins to find its ring in the center, to respond to the infinite.”
What is the “pivot of the Way” in war? Interests.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a blow to both sides: Iran raises oil prices, making the US uncomfortable, while the US blockade prevents Iran from selling oil (which is of little use), and stops key supplies from entering Iran (which might be useful), also making Iran uncomfortable.
However, since the ceasefire, the interest groups and demands on both sides have not changed much, so there is still a strong willingness to negotiate. Also, don’t forget that one of the major disagreements in the last negotiations was the nuclear issue, and now both sides are focused on the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that they have likely reached a consensus on the nuclear matter. This is a positive sign.
The market has been scared again by the US and Iran
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April 24, 2026, 12:18
Shanghai
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Today’s morning session, the A-share market showed a pattern of oscillating adjustment. All three major indices opened lower and declined throughout the day. By midday, the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index had fallen more than 1% and 2%, respectively. Ultimately, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.58%, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 1.37%, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.20%. Market turnover shrank, with a total half-day trading volume of 1.73 trillion yuan, down 219.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
In terms of individual stocks, market profitability was poor, with over 3,900 stocks declining, and market hotspots were relatively scattered. Of course, the trend in A-shares is not independent; the US stock market also showed the same trend. Few events can move global investors’ hearts, and currently, only the US-Iran war qualifies. After a stalemate in bombings in March, the US and Iran announced a ceasefire on April 8, and held the first round of negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 12. This round did not result in a formal agreement but reached some consensus on certain issues. Due to the unsuccessful negotiations, the US applied further pressure.
On April 14, the US officially blockaded the Strait of Hormuz: announcing that any ships leaving Iranian ports or destined for Iranian ports would be detained by the US military.
On April 19, the US military forcibly intercepted and took control of an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, boarding and searching the vessel.
On April 22, the US Central Command announced that it had intercepted 29 ships, demanding they turn around or return to port. Iran wavered on this issue for a time. On April 17, Iran’s foreign minister announced the Strait of Hormuz was open to all commercial ships, a message later confirmed by Trump on social media; the next day, the situation reversed, with Iran’s military spokesperson claiming the US violated the ceasefire agreement, and the Strait of Hormuz was closed again. The Revolutionary Guard also attacked an Indian vessel attempting to pass through.
The Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a statement saying Iran is determined to control the passage through the Strait of Hormuz until the war is completely over and regional peace is achieved. Both sides agreed to hold a second round of talks on April 22, but each side found reasons to refuse. Iran believed the US violated the ceasefire agreement and protested the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; the US believed Iran was too internally divided to have a unified stance, so the talks were postponed. Trump also announced a ceasefire of 3 to 5 days that day, but later denied any specific deadline during an interview.
Currently, the news is quite chaotic, with both sides releasing contradictory reports, lies, or rapidly changing truths. In the face of such confusing information, what we need to do is step back, retreat to that unchanging place. As Zhuangzi said: “He who has no equal, is called the pivot of the Way. The pivot begins to find its ring in the center, to respond to the infinite.”
What is the “pivot of the Way” in war? Interests.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a blow to both sides: Iran raises oil prices, making the US uncomfortable, while the US blockade prevents Iran from selling oil (which is of little use), and stops key supplies from entering Iran (which might be useful), also making Iran uncomfortable.
However, since the ceasefire, the interest groups and demands on both sides have not changed much, so there is still a strong willingness to negotiate. Also, don’t forget that one of the major disagreements in the last negotiations was the nuclear issue, and now both sides are focused on the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that they have likely reached a consensus on the nuclear matter. This is a positive sign.
As for the future status of the Strait of Hormuz, not only does the US oppose the blockade, but other major world powers also disapprove of it. Iran faces significant pressure. Therefore, the most likely outcome for the strait is similar to the plan Iran’s foreign minister proposed on April 17: Iran appears to gain control, but in reality, cannot charge fees.
The next round of negotiations is roughly as follows:
95% probability (unchanged from last time): Both sides continue to compromise, maintaining the partial consensus already reached, and reaching further agreement on more issues, most likely on Iran’s nuclear issue;
10% probability (unchanged): Both sides have no disagreements and reach a complete agreement;
0% probability (unchanged): Negotiations break down, and all agreements are torn up.
Regarding the Strait of Hormuz:
75% probability (unchanged): Iran lifts restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, no fees charged;
60% probability (down 30% from last time): Before May, the Strait of Hormuz fully recovers, and shipping volume returns to pre-war levels.