My phone just popped up a red dot again: interest rates are being discussed on trending searches, and the group immediately started saying "risk assets are about to take a hit." To put it simply, the macro transmission to crypto isn't that mysterious: when interest rates are high, that small "risk appetite budget" everyone has is first absorbed by government bonds/money market funds, leverage becomes more expensive, and positions naturally shrink, making the market more prone to panic selling with the slightest wind.

I'm quite straightforward: when I see interest rate expectations rising, I break down my positions a bit more, keep some cash on hand, and stop thinking about going all-in at once. On-chain, it's even more obvious: a higher number of failed trades and repeated nonce replacements are mostly due to emotional impatience, slippage filling in randomly, which is quite synchronized with macro trends like "risk appetite turning around."

As for the recent L2s arguing over TPS, fees, subsidies... I just treat it as a temperature gauge of sentiment: when money is tight, they prefer to compare "cheaper," "faster," and "more generous" options. Anyway, I care more about not messing with the packing order or making users think that clicking confirm guarantees safety. That's all for now.