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Gold Loses Momentum, High Interest Rates Become Obstacle

Gold price prospects are still overshadowed by the tug-of-war between geopolitical sentiment and global macroeconomic pressures. Amid ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, precious metal price movements tend to be volatile.

According to Bloomberg data, spot gold prices stood at US$ 4,709.50 per troy ounce on Friday (24/4/2026), up 0.33% from the previous day. However, over the week, gold prices declined by 2.57%.

Sutopo Widodo, President Commissioner of HFX International Futures, explained that the current market conditions present a paradox for gold. On one hand, gold benefits from its status as a safe haven amid increasing geopolitical uncertainty.

On the other hand, the surge in energy prices triggered by conflict actually increases inflation risks and prolongs expectations of high interest rates.

“The spike in energy prices is a double-edged sword. It reinforces the narrative of high interest rates, which ultimately puts pressure on gold,” Sutopo told Kontan, Thursday (23/4/2026).

Technically, the movement of gold approaching the US$ 4,700 per ounce level reflects pressure from the strengthening US dollar (US) and rising yields (yield) on 10-year US government bonds reaching 4.31%. This condition limits gold’s upward potential despite the high risk premium due to conflict.

Looking ahead, Sutopo sees the risk of gold continuing to weaken in the short term. This is especially true if geopolitical tensions suddenly ease or if there is tangible progress in Iran peace proposals.

Additionally, the market is also monitoring US monetary policy dynamics, including the nomination of Kevin Warsh to the US Federal Reserve, which is seen as a signal of independence in maintaining monetary stability.

If economic data such as PMI and US unemployment claims remain solid, expectations for interest rate hikes will strengthen further.

“Historically, rising interest rates have been a negative sentiment for gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets,” he added.

For the first half of 2026, Sutopo projects gold prices will move within a relatively wide consolidation range, between US$ 4,500 and US$ 4,900 per ounce.

In such volatile conditions, he recommends investors prioritize a wait-and-see strategy or gradually accumulate in technical support areas.

He believes that after gold prices corrected about 10% since the start of the conflict, market focus is now beginning to shift.

“Investors’ attention is no longer solely on the escalation of the war, but also on how global monetary policies respond to inflation, which tends to be ‘sticky’ due to the energy crisis,” Sutopo concluded.

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