Polymarket "The Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before May 31" probability is only 37%, down 9% in 24 hours

ME News update, April 13 (UTC+8). Odaily Seer’s monitoring in its Seer channel shows that the probability for Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before May 31” is only 37%, down 9% over the past 24 hours.

The event contract rules are: if the IMF Portwatch publishes, on any date between the market’s creation and May 31, 2026, the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz for the 7-day moving average (the “ships arriving”) is equal to or greater than 60, then the market will be judged as “Yes”; otherwise, the market will be judged as “No.” The daily number of transiting ships includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

The U.S. military said it will begin implementing a blockade in the Arabian Sea east of the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz. Any vessel that enters or leaves the blockade area without authorization may be intercepted, diverted, and seized. In addition, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he supports Trump’s decision to impose a maritime blockade on Iran, adding that his government is fully and comprehensively coordinated with Washington on this matter. According to a video statement released by the Prime Minister’s Office, Netanyahu said at a cabinet meeting: “Iran has violated the rules, and President Trump has decided to implement a maritime blockade.” “We of course support this firm stance, and we are maintaining ongoing coordination with the United States.”

Odaily Seer’s Seer channel continues to monitor the prediction market and see changes before pricing. (Source: ODAILY)