Polymarket "The Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before May 31" probability is only 37%, down 9% in 24 hours

ME News report. On April 13 (UTC+8), Odaily Seer’s monitoring channel showed that the probability of Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before May 31” is only 37%, down 9% over the past 24 hours.

The event contract rules are: if the IMF Portwatch (International Monetary Fund Portwatch) reports that the 7-day moving average number of transit ships arriving at port in the Strait of Hormuz (“ships arriving”) is greater than or equal to 60 on any date between market creation and May 31, 2026, then the market will be judged as “Yes”; otherwise, it will be judged as “No.”

The daily number of transit ships includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Vessels that are not reported by the IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

The U.S. military announced it will begin implementing a blockade in the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz and in the Gulf of Oman. Any ships entering or leaving the blockade area without authorization may be intercepted, diverted, and seized.

In addition, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he supports Trump’s decision to impose a maritime blockade on Iran, adding that his government is in full coordination with Washington on this matter. According to a video statement released by the Prime Minister’s Office, Netanyahu said at the cabinet meeting: “Iran has violated the rules, and President Trump has decided to implement a maritime blockade.”

“We of course support this firm stance, and we are maintaining ongoing coordination with the United States.”

Odaily Seer’s monitoring channel continues to focus on prediction markets, observing changes before pricing. (Source: ODAILY)