每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks（0418-0424）

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The information flow is too fast, and in-depth analysis articles are easily drowned out by hot topics. The “Weekly Editor’s Picks” column extracts these valuable judgment content from the vast amount of information, helping you filter out noise, keep insights, and inspire.

Macroeconomic Situation

Crossing the critical point: Price hikes are just the prelude, and the oil market will face “physical supply disruptions”

“Time mismatch” is an underestimated variable by the market.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz resumes short-term traffic, the delays in oil tanker turnover caused by earlier transportation disruptions will continue to erode land-based inventories over the coming weeks. This means that supply issues will not be immediately alleviated with “navigation restoration,” but will lag and be reflected in inventories and spot markets.

Against this backdrop, refinery behavior becomes a key amplifier. If the Strait remains closed until after April, the traditional oil pricing framework will fail. The market will face an extreme situation close to “physical shortages”—in this state, prices are no longer effective adjustment tools, and the price ceiling loses its reference significance.

What can truly bring the market back to balance is not supply recovery, but policy-driven demand suppression similar to during the pandemic.

Investment and Entrepreneurship

Global Census of Consumer Crypto: User, Revenue, and Sector Distribution

The core issue with crypto users is a geographical problem (massive real users are overlooked by the West); Tron is the most important consumer-grade public chain; on-chain e-commerce is not viable; revenue and user numbers often move inversely; the battle of perpetual DEXs is over, with HYPE winning.

I used AI to analyze 221 contract tokens and finally found the only way out for “妖币” trading.

For妖币, predicting the start and “toping out” are both infeasible; the only viable strategy is to short during sharp rises and retracements, and strictly execute rebound liquidation exits. The only effective indicator: naked K.

Enter early, hold short positions, and run fast.

How much cash do top-tier VC investors still have?

Estimated by top investors: Available funds for Series A and later rounds are about $6-7 billion; seed and earlier stage funds are about $1-2 billion.

Pufeng’s 2026 Hong Kong Speech: Why I Joined the Crypto Industry?

The future will definitely be “FICC+C,” meaning a major asset allocation combined with crypto assets. Technology is bringing financial revolution; now is the time for new technology to bring new finance. Crypto assets have matured to the point of being included in investment portfolios.

Also recommended: “Hong Kong Stock IPOs, a New Battlefield for Shenzhen Grinders.”

Market Predictions

You bet on news, the front car reads rules: The real cognition gap in Polymarket losing money

Polymarket has never been just a “guess the event” market; it’s more like a system that translates real-world events into legal texts, then translates legal texts into settlement results.

Understanding the rules is as important as doing research. The front car’s advantage often comes from a deep understanding of the rules—knowing what this system recognizes and how rulings are made.

Who can realize earlier that there is a gap between “reality” and “rules” will have a better chance to profit from the price deviations caused by misreading, controversy, and emotion.

Polymarket’s “2028 Presidential Election” traffic king is… LeBron James???

About 70% of trading volume is concentrated on candidates with less than 1% probability. Traders or liquidity providers in these absurd markets can be categorized as “lottery players, bots, wool parties.”

In the “2028 Presidential Election” event on Polymarket, users trading James or Kardashian are neither crazy nor stupid; they are either seeking stable annualized returns or aiming for better execution paths. Their operations are absurd but driven by rationality.

Policy and Stablecoins

Will the CLARITY bill, with only a 50% probability this year, pass before the midterm elections?

CeFi & DeFi

Aave, due to its own stupidity, hands over the throne of DeFi lending

Aave is watching its once-dominant advantage in lending—hundreds of billions in deposits—slip away due to its extremely foolish crisis PR strategy, allowing community panic to ferment for days, and losing the “safest DeFi” reputation.

The true story behind WLFI’s satire

WLFI’s core controversy lies in its revenue distribution structure: “Zero investment, high commission, zero responsibility.”

WLFI’s risk map can be divided into two levels:

Structural risk: The 75/25 profit-sharing clause, 80% token concentration, and overlapping identities among family members and regulators form a systemic conflict of interest. These issues do not automatically resolve with market improvements or partial repayments.

Operational risk: The Dolomite lending incident revealed a lack of basic risk management awareness at the financial decision-making level, and related-party transactions lack transparent disclosure. Coupled with low token liquidity, such operations pose potential threats to market stability.

Airdrop opportunities and interaction guides

Popular interaction collection | Early registration for Tether Web3 Wallet; Nava AI candidate list application (April 22)

Ethereum and scalability

Vitalik Speech: Improving resistance to quantum computing, copying Ethereum’s L2 is pointless | 2026 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival

Weekly Hot Topics

Policy and macro markets

Trump announces extension of ceasefire, maintaining maritime blockade;

Iran: The Strait of Hormuz is part of Iran’s sovereignty, and they will not relinquish control;

SpaceX drops a “big IPO bomb”: Space AI technology is unverified and may not be commercialized;

US SEC Chair: Promoting the establishment of digital asset regulatory framework and proposing the “A-C-T” strategy;

Singapore to optimize crypto capital regulation: public chain assets may no longer be classified as high risk across the board;

Opinions and statements

Hong Kong officials respond to “Middle East funds flooding in”: mutual exchanges, tokenized funds have landed on Middle Eastern wealth management platforms;

Dragonfly partner: DeFi evolves through failure, systems possess resilience and self-healing capabilities;

Sun Yuchen sues World Liberty Financial;

Elon Musk agrees to make ASTEROID SpaceX’s mascot (related meme and background story);

Institutions, large companies, and leading projects

Polymarket announces upcoming perpetual contract feature (interpretation);

Security

Kelp DAO’s rsETH bridge contract based on LayerZero was attacked, losing nearly $300 million (review, Aave, L0, Kelp three-party game), Aave founder Stani announced a personal donation of 5,000 ETH to address current issues;

RAVE collapse (full review);

Iran fires on oil tankers involved in crypto scams;

One user profits $34k by interfering with Polymarket’s temperature prediction market using a hairdryer…

附《每周编辑精选》系列传送门。下期再会~