#加密市场行情震荡 Currently, the global macro core variables focus on the geopolitical game between the US and Iran, with negotiations stuck in a deadlock, continuously bringing uncertainty and disturbances to the capital markets. The US stance is firm, with Trump stating in a recent interview that the US holds an absolute advantage in the US-Iran negotiations, demanding Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile and relinquish control over the Strait of Hormuz, with strong pressure implying a heavy-handed approach. The second round of negotiations originally planned to be led by US Vice President Vance in Islamabad was ultimately shelved after Iran explicitly refused to participate. Additionally, the US-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement expiring on April 22 faces numerous uncertainties; the US unilaterally extended the ceasefire, but core disagreements remain unresolved, and the confrontation in the Middle East remains tense. Driven by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, shipping restrictions, and supply concerns, international oil prices continue to rise. As of now, Brent crude oil prices have risen to $106.01 per barrel, steadily climbing within the day, with a year-over-year increase of nearly 59%. The soaring oil prices further intensify global inflation pressures, increase volatility in major asset classes, and indirectly create complex bidirectional impacts on risk assets.

In Bitcoin’s current rebound, short positions have been largely cleared, with short-term selling pressure briefly released, but the upward logic of the market shows obvious shortcomings. According to CryptoQuant data, this price increase is not supported by spot market inflows; the core driving force comes from a concentrated short squeeze in the futures market amounting to nearly $1.19 billion. Over-reliance on derivatives to drive the rally results in weak stability, making it prone to sentiment retreat and trend reversal.

Currently, Bitcoin faces significant resistance at the $80,000 mark, with upward momentum gradually exhausted, and the bulls and bears are approaching equilibrium.
Key resistance and support zones are clearly defined:
- Major resistance: $78,500–$79,000, a heavily pressured zone where bulls find it difficult to break through continuously;
- Short-term reasonable pullback: if pressure causes a decline, the first support levels are $76,000–$76,500;
- Critical defensive position: $75,000–$75,500, a break below this could damage the short-term upward structure and trigger an accelerated downward trend.

In the short-term market rhythm, the latest developments in the US-Iran situation over the weekend will be important catalysts. However, the market has already fully priced in geopolitical conflict expectations, and the impact of news-driven unilateral shocks is relatively limited. Overall, the market remains primarily under technical pressure, with a downward correction and consolidation. From a weekly chart perspective, the current fourth wave of the rebound has entered its final stage, with volume continuing to shrink and upward momentum weakening, signaling a gradual accumulation of a top in the medium term. After repeated US-Iran tensions and the market’s optimistic expectations being fully released, the probability of Bitcoin testing the $80,000 level and then pulling back is relatively high. Coupled with multiple negative signals resonating: $8.47 billion worth of options expiring, the prior $1.19 billion short positions being largely cleared, insufficient spot market support, and the convergence of futures and spot premiums, all indicate that this phase of the rally is nearing its end. Without continuous inflows of new spot funds or a volume breakout above $80,000, the weekly stage rebound is likely to end, and the market will revert to a correction cycle, with the core oscillation range locked between $75,000 and $76,000. In the medium term, the market will shift from a bullish dominance to a more oscillating and slightly weaker pattern.