I just reviewed the on-chain metrics and there’s something interesting in the Bitcoin numbers. In early 2026, we had around 11.1 million BTC in unrealized gains versus 8.9 million in losses. That means most wallets are literally in the green, which says a lot about where we are in the cycle.

This is important because when almost everyone has unrealized gains, market dynamics change. Those who bought a while ago don’t feel the pressure to sell at a loss, so there are fewer panic liquidations. But it also means that new buyers become the main sellers when things get rough. Bitcoin’s dominance in this context reflects that the main market is quite healthy but not in extreme euphoria.

Historically, when you see more than 90% of the supply in gains, that usually coincides with peaks. Conversely, when the supply in gains and losses converges, that’s typically when you find major bottoms. The point we’re at now (55% in gains, 45% in losses approximately) is in a late-middle zone of the bull cycle. Profitable, but with room before reaching those levels of madness.

Bitcoin’s dominance also tells us something about the supply structure. About 85% is in long-term wallets, so there’s quite a bit of stability. The MVRV ratio is around 2.5, meaning the average coin is in profit but not exaggerated. Miners are also comfortable with a Puell Multiple near 1.3, profitable but without massive selling pressure.

For traders, this means that if a correction happens, it’s probably not a catastrophic drop because forced selling pressure is low. But if macro conditions worsen, the temptation to take profits grows quickly. Watch out for when that gap between gains and losses widens too fast—that’s often a red flag.

What I see is a market that’s in good shape but requires attention. It’s not the panic of the bottoms nor the euphoria of peaks. It’s that middle ground where there’s still potential but also real risks if macro factors move unfavorably. Combine this data with technical analysis and disciplined risk management, and you get a better idea of when to accumulate, hold, or take profits.