A Memory of an Old Hand in the Game

Seeing everyone talk about the US-Iran negotiations about to fall apart, I suddenly thought of that time in 2019.

That year was also loud and chaotic. I’d only just entered the circle not long before, and I didn’t know anything. I heard people say oil prices were going to surge, so I hurried in—only to have the weekend pass, and then both sides suddenly said they’d reached an agreement. The oil price immediately plunged. My trade got stopped out with pain in my flesh. From then on, I understood a truth: this thing called geopolitics—ordinary people can’t figure it out. You think you’re analyzing the situation, but actually you’re just rolling dice.

This time, the situation is indeed more complicated than in 2019. Iran has been hit hard by sanctions for years. There’s intense pressure inside, and outside they’re also accelerating military buildup. It’s kind of like being pushed into a corner. When people get cornered, what do they do? Hard to say. Countries are the same. As for the Strait of Hormuz—honestly, I don’t think a full blockade is something they’d dare to do. Whoever does it would be openly at war with the whole world. But making a few smaller moves is much easier. Block a few ships, carry out drone harassment, or simply use speedboats to stir things up—just like that, you can scare the oil market into slapping on a few dollars of premium.

The key is that the market now is different from a few years ago. Inflation was already hard to suppress. Central banks in every country have been stubbornly propping things up. If oil prices add fuel to the fire again, the subsequent chain reactions will be plenty. Rate hikes? They don’t dare. Rate cuts? Inflation will shoot to the sky. By then, gold, Bitcoin, and others may have to go crazy again.

But no matter what, this time I’m not chasing it. I’ll just hold spot and watch slowly. If it goes up, I won’t get greedy; if it falls, I won’t panic. After being taught by the market for so many years, the most valuable thing I’ve learned is to keep my hands in check. Brothers, don’t get too worked up either—life is your own, and money is even more so.
#美伊談判陷入僵局