Middle East Situation Overview | April 24

After the US-Iran interim ceasefire expired, it was extended again for three more weeks. Trump also announced that the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire would be extended for three more weeks, but there has been no sign of any softening of positions between the two sides. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially announced that the focus of negotiations has shifted from the nuclear issue to a complete ceasefire, and it has put forward key demands at the negotiating table such as war reparations, a solution to the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz, and a comprehensive removal of sanctions. The United States continues to impose a maritime blockade on Iran, and Iran announced that the first payment of passage fees for the strait has been credited in the form of cash foreign exchange. The 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel has already become largely meaningless amid renewed exchanges of fire, and the IDF has continued airstrikes even after the ceasefire was extended.

I. US-Iran Developments

Ceasefire extended again; Trump says he “doesn’t want to act hastily”

After the two-week US-Iran interim ceasefire expired, Trump announced that the ceasefire would be extended by three weeks, and said he had instructed the US Navy to attack ships laying mines in the strait for Iran. He said that as negotiations with Iran continue to move forward, “we don’t want to act hastily,” stressing that Iran’s leadership is “in turmoil.” Iran, meanwhile, has kept a low profile regarding the extension and has not confirmed it publicly.

Iran’s negotiation focus has fundamentally shifted: from nuclear issues to a complete ceasefire

On the 23rd, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson officially responded to the matter of Speaker Kalibaf being appointed head of Iran’s delegation, stating that the nature of the negotiations has undergone a fundamental change—the core issue is no longer the nuclear issue, but rather the complete end of the war. The spokesperson clearly pointed out that the nuclear issue is no longer the main axis, and that the current focus of negotiations is a complete ceasefire, with the primary task being to safeguard the country’s core interests.

Key demands at the negotiating table include seeking war reparations, resolving the Strait of Hormuz dispute, and fully lifting sanctions. Iran also demands that the United States and Israel provide tangible guarantees to ensure that there will be no future military aggression against Iran, and that any final agreement must be based on eliminating threats and preventing a repeat of invasions as the bottom line. Kalibaf has combat experience in the Iran-Iraq war, and he has teamed up with Alireza Aghaji, who also has a war background; the Iranian side believes this is an efficient diplomatic combination that can coordinate the overall situation.

Some Israeli media have reported that Kalibaf “has resigned from the negotiating team,” but the intervention of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps caused a split. Iran has firmly denied it and emphasized that there is no internal infighting within Iran’s leadership, and that everything is between “Iranians” and “revolutionaries.”

US military blockade continues; Iran’s first Strait passage fee credited

Iran’s Central Bank confirmed that the first payment of passage fees collected for ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz has been formally credited in the form of “cash foreign exchange.” At the same time, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released a video showing special forces boarding a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz by speedboat, raising concerns among observers that the situation may escalate.

The US side continues to strengthen its blockade actions. The U.S. Central Command reported that the aircraft carrier “Bush” is sailing in the Indian Ocean, and that US forces boarded a supertanker carrying Iranian oil. Regarding negotiations, according to Pakistani diplomats, US-Iran talks have “stalled,” with progress “very slow.”

Less than a day after Trump announced that the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire would be extended to three weeks, the IDF carried out attacks in southern Lebanon’s Haret Sahel and Tulin regions, striking Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. It said this was a response to Hezbollah “violating the ceasefire.” On the 24th, an Arabic spokesperson for the IDF on social media urged residents of Deir Al-Amar town in southern Lebanon to “evacuate immediately,” saying that the IDF will “take action” there soon. Hezbollah fired several rockets at Israeli settlements in Shitula in northern Israel on the evening of the 23rd. This was the first time Hezbollah launched rocket attacks inside Israel since the ceasefire.

Earlier, on the 22nd, Israel carried out airstrikes on Tiri in southern Lebanon, killing one and injuring another of two journalists, and during rescue efforts, Israeli forces attacked Lebanese ambulances.

Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health shows that since fighting between Lebanon and Israel resumed on March 2, IDF strikes have cumulatively caused 2,483 deaths and 7,707 injuries. The IDF’s efforts to establish a “buffer zone” in southern Lebanon are still underway, and thousands of civilians have been forced to flee their homes.

III. Gaza Situation: Ceasefire for six months is effectively meaningless; Israel may be weighing a new offensive

The Gaza ceasefire has been in effect for six months, but the actual situation remains worrying. Israel continues to launch attacks citing “violations of the ceasefire”—since the ceasefire began, at least 786 people have been killed.

A Hamas spokesperson said that the commitments of the first phase of the ceasefire should have included the IDF withdrawing and humanitarian aid entering comprehensively, but Israel failed to fulfill its humanitarian obligations and instead has continued to launch attacks. Hamas has refused to disarm, saying it will not hand over weapons unless Israel fully withdraws from Gaza.

Israel may be preparing to launch a large-scale offensive in Gaza

According to Al Araby newspaper, although ceasefires have been reached on both the US-Iran and Lebanon-Israel fronts, Israel is preparing to launch large-scale attacks on Gaza, and senior IDF officials are waiting for an opportunity. The report said that because elections in Israel are approaching, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been accused by opponents of failing to achieve “absolute victory” in Gaza, and restarting the war in Gaza may be a possible option to shift attention and maintain his position. In recent days, the IDF has continued airstrikes across Gaza. In just the past few days, at least 2 Palestinians have been killed and 10 people injured.

IV. Yemeni Houthis: Threaten to blockade the Straits of Hormuz

The Houthis are becoming a new variable in the regional situation. A deputy minister of Houthi information, Mohammed Mansour, said clearly that “if attacks on Iran and Lebanon escalate,” the Straits of Hormuz could be closed. He also warned that if Gulf states join the war, blocking the strait would be an option.

The Straits of Hormuz are a key shipping route connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. At its narrowest point, it is only 29 kilometers wide. If it is blocked, it would create a double pressure on the energy lifelines together with the Strait of Hormuz. Right now, the Houthis have not actually moved to take action. Analysts believe this is intended to show support for Iran and force the United States to make concessions in negotiations, while also tying the Yemen issue to the Middle East situation in order to seek international recognition.

V. Strait of Hormuz: Transit fees have been received; shipping recovery remains far off

The actual conditions for transiting through the Strait of Hormuz remain extremely unfavorable. Windward, a maritime intelligence platform, shows that on Wednesday only 9 merchant ships passed through the strait, 7 on Tuesday, and 15 on Monday. Before the conflict, the average daily number of ships transiting was 129.

The head of the International Energy Agency, Birol, issued a stern warning that the world is facing the “biggest energy security threat in history.” So far, the world has lost about 13 million barrels per day of oil supply, and the scale of the energy crisis is unprecedented. About 20 million barrels of oil and oil products used to pass through the strait every day, accounting for about one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade. The continued consecutive blockade is still hitting global supply expectations.

Analysts point out that as long as the passage of the shipping lane has not fully resumed, global inventories will keep falling, and oil prices will receive sustained support. Supply uncertainty has pushed the crude oil market back into a “supply-led” stage.

VI. International Responses and Market Impact

In the United States, Trump has extended the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire by three weeks, but there has been limited substantive progress in US-Iran negotiations. On the evening of the 23rd, Iran’s air defense system intercepted “hostile targets” in the skies over Tehran, further heightening tensions. In Israel, cases have emerged alleging espionage activity for Iran, and two air force technical personnel have been brought to court.

In the energy market, international oil prices have risen for a fifth consecutive day. Brent crude climbed from $96 to about $105 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 15%. WTI crude rebounded from $88 to about $96 per barrel, with a weekly gain of more than 12%. The rise in oil prices is mainly driven by real supply disruptions, not only geopolitical risk premia. Output of Persian Gulf crude is expected to decrease by about 14.5 million barrels per day, a drop of more than 50%.

If the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed for the long term, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies warns that oil prices could surge to $150 per barrel and remain elevated for months, triggering a global economic recession. Citigroup has therefore lowered its global economic growth forecast for this year from 2.9% to 2.7%. Goldman Sachs expects that even if the strait reopens, it will take several months for Persian Gulf crude oil production to recover.

In financial markets, all three major US stock indexes fell collectively. The S&P 500 fell 0.41%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.89%. The US dollar index rose to 98.80, and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose to 4.327%, reflecting that the market is re-evaluating geopolitical risks and the interest-rate path of the Federal Reserve.

VII. Key Numbers at a Glance

Item | Data
Lebanon-Israel conflict cumulative deaths | 2,483 (since March 2)
Lebanon-Israel conflict cumulative injuries | 7,707
Deaths after the Gaza ceasefire | 786
Average daily loss of strait passage | about 13 million barrels/day
Expected Persian Gulf oil production loss | about 14.5 million barrels/day
Current average daily number of transit ships | 7–15 ships (129 ships before the conflict)
Weekly gain of Brent crude | about 15% ($96→$105 per barrel)
Weekly gain of WTI crude | about 12% ($88→$96 per barrel)
US military expenditure estimate | about $18 billion (as of April 23)
Iran’s economic loss estimate | at least $300 billion

Summary: On April 24, the Middle East situation presents a complex picture of “ceasefires being extended continuously, but the fighting in substance has not stopped.” The nature of US-Iran negotiations has already completed a fundamental shift from the nuclear issue to a complete ceasefire, but the gap in positions has not narrowed. Passage through the Strait of Hormuz is approaching a standstill; the crediting of the first “transit fee” means Iran is moving toward institutionalizing control of the strait. The Lebanon-Israel ceasefire extension has been announced, yet exchanges of fire continue. The IDF’s demand for residents in southern Lebanon to evacuate suggests that ground operations may be set to escalate. The Houthis threaten to blockade the Straits of Hormuz.
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