I remember, at the end of January, there was an interesting movement in the market. Bitcoin plummeted from 98,000 to 86,000 over several consecutive days — the longest series of declines since November of last year. ETH was also not spared, falling from 3000 to 2800. At that time, the fear index was at an extreme level of 29, and total liquidations exceeded 600 million dollars within 12 hours.

What’s interesting is that this coincided with several factors happening simultaneously. First, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased demand for safe-haven assets. Gold and silver reached all-time highs — gold went above 5000 per ounce, and silver surged to $107. Investors preferred physical precious metals over crypto. Second, there was pressure on the stock market — the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.58%, although the NASDAQ remained in positive territory. The S&P 500 index declined by 0.36% over the week.

The third factor was the sharply increased probability of a US government shutdown, rising from 8% to 80% on Polymarket. Plus, the earnings season for major tech companies had begun, and the market was nervous about the profitability of AI investments. Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple — all were preparing to release their results. These companies make up more than a quarter of the S&P 500, so their reports influence the entire market.

I also noticed a significant outflow from spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Over several days, hundreds of millions were leaving — the maximum was 700 million in one day. Ethereum was even worse — four days of outflows in a row, peaking at 229 million.

But here’s what’s curious — while retail investors were panicking and selling, large players acted quite differently. Addresses of whales holding 10 to 10,000 BTC increased their positions by 36,322 BTC over nine days. This is a classic pattern — smart money buys when retail is selling. Santiment noted that such stages often mark the beginning of an upward breakout.

Some analysts looked at levels of 80,000, 74,000, and 70,000 as key entry points. The point was that the long-term signal remained bullish despite short-term volatility. If the market rebounds — hold your positions; if it falls further — it’s just an opportunity to accumulate more.