The current market is in a phase of "high-level consolidation with intense bulls and bears competition." Bitcoin (BTC) retreated after failing to break $80k, while Ethereum (ETH) shows relatively weaker performance. The core strategy recommendation is "range-bound trading," rather than chasing highs or panic selling on dips.

Bulls and bears logic analysis

1. Bitcoin (BTC)

Long entry logic: ETF funds are still continuously net inflowing (recent single-day net inflow of about $335 million), with institutional buying as the main support. The daily chart remains within the upper Bollinger Band, and as long as it does not break below the key support of $76,500, the trend remains intact.

Short entry logic: $80,000 is a strong psychological resistance level, with multiple attempts to break through unsuccessful. Funding rates remain negative, indicating growing bearish momentum. If it falls below $76,500, a rapid correction towards $72,000 may occur.

2. Ethereum (ETH)

Long entry logic: Spot ETF also maintains net inflow. The price is near the strong support zone of $2,250-$2,280, suitable for expecting a rebound.

Short entry logic: Weaker performance than Bitcoin, having broken below the $2,300 threshold. If it loses the $2,250 support, downside potential opens, targeting below $2,100.

🎯 Operation ideas reference

Conservative strategy (trading on the right side): Wait and see. Wait for BTC to clearly break through $80,100 (long) or effectively fall below $76,500 (short) before taking action. ETH similarly, watch for $2,380 breakout or $2,250 breakdown.

Aggressive strategy (range arbitrage):

BTC: Try long positions lightly around $77,000, stop loss at $76,500; try short positions lightly around $79,000, stop loss at $79,800.

ETH: Try long positions lightly around $2,280, stop loss at $2,250; try short positions lightly around $2,350, stop loss at $2,400.

Risk warning: The market before the FOMC meeting is highly uncertain. Do not hold heavy positions or go all-in, to avoid "long and short at the same time."

🔍 Key monitoring signals

Can BTC hold above $78,000: If it holds, sentiment turns bullish; if it falls below, test support.

ETH $2,250 defense: This level is the last line of defense for bulls; a breakdown turns it bearish.

US stock market opening and US dollar index: If the dollar strengthens, the crypto market usually faces pressure.
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