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Analysis: Bitcoin’s “quantum threat” is controllable; potential $145 billion in sell pressure or non-systemic risk
Data shows that about 1.7 million BTC (about $145 billion) are stored in early “Satoshi era” addresses. If the private keys are compromised, it could create potential sell pressure. But from a market liquidity perspective, this amount is not unmanageable: in a bull market, the average daily amount sold by long-term holders is typically between 10,000 and 30,000 BTC. This means the above scale is equivalent to 2 to 3 months of normal profit-taking.
In addition, the exchange average monthly inflow is about 850,000 BTC, and the nominal trading volume in the derivatives market can cover this size in just a few days. Historical data shows that in the most recent bear market, more than 2.3 million BTC changed hands in a single quarter—far exceeding the potential scale of the “quantum risk”—yet it did not trigger a systemic collapse.
Analysis suggests that even if assets are released in a concentrated manner, it would be more likely to result in period-by-period volatility rather than a structural shock. At the same time, entities capable of acquiring the relevant assets are more likely to adopt strategies such as selling in batches and hedging to reduce market impact.
Overall, the core issue of the “quantum threat” may not be the sell pressure itself, but rather how governance responds—for example, whether to limit the liquidity of assets in related addresses through protocol upgrades. $BTC
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