The extreme pessimism we're seeing in the market is from my perspective quite different. Technical analysts may think everything is over, but macro data is telling a different story.

Here's the real point — global liquidity is what drives everything. Since 2012, it has had a 90% correlation with Bitcoin. With the NDX, it goes up to 97%. And it has been increasing by about 10% year over year, showing no signs of slowing down.

GMI financial conditions lead global liquidity by about six months, and they are still in a highly supportive state. The impact of banking sector issues on US liquidity was felt, but over the past three months, it has been rapidly rising again. This index leads crypto by approximately three months.

Easing of the eSLR rules for banks is also boosting liquidity. Tax refunds are going directly into bank balance sheets, increasing credit creation capacity. And if the US cuts interest rates — which seems likely — both available income and risk appetite will increase.

Things are also changing regarding crypto regulation. The CLARITY Act is expected to pass, which will attract institutional capital. Large banks and asset managers want to use this technology; the only thing missing was legal clarity.

The development of stablecoins is accelerating rapidly. Last year, their issuance increased by 50%, and this pace is still quickening. Trading volume has reached billions of dollars. Government support is also at historic levels.

Now, let’s look at the technical side. According to the DeMark indicator, we are in an extremely oversold condition — perhaps the most in history. The weekly DeMark is set to provide strong support in two weeks. The daily indicator is also showing convergence. If weakness appears, these signals will confirm, indicating a trend reversal.

One risk factor is that oil prices could stay high. But the next two weeks will be critical. Considering all factors, I believe a positive move is likely ahead.