These days, someone on the chain is again chasing after "whale addresses" to follow trades. To be clear: is he gradually building a position, or is he using spot holdings as collateral for hedging? Many large transfers into the exchange don't necessarily mean a dump; they might just be changing margin. Conversely, buying a bunch on-chain could also be to help cover a short position. Don’t just look at the direction; consider the upstream and downstream as well.

Recently, with cross-chain bridge hacks and oracle errors, everyone has been shouting "wait for confirmation." I think this consensus is quite useful: don’t rush in at the sight of a big order. I personally first threw in $50 to test the waters, and for the rest, I’d rather wait 10 more minutes to see if there’s a reverse move... Anyway, I don’t predict; I just record.