I noticed something interesting in the market these days. Arthur Hayes, known for his bold vision in the crypto world, recently admitted that he hasn’t actually made any trades during the first quarter. And this isn’t random—the market is standing on the edge of a dangerously double cliff.

On one hand, artificial intelligence will wipe out middle-class jobs in the United States, which could trigger a real deflationary collapse. On the other hand, the Iranian war may rewrite everything we know about the dominance of the U.S. dollar. This is what has made trading in a perfectly “dead” zone.

The first scenario is clear: if things revert to normal, Bitcoin could rise a bit to $80,000–$90,000, but the real problem under the surface—AI agents’ inflation bombs—haven’t gone off yet. The U.S. economy relies on consumer spending (70% of GDP), and consumers fund their expenses through credit. When knowledge workers lose their jobs—which is happening now—banks will face a catastrophe.

The second scenario is more dangerous: Iran tightens control of the Strait of Hormuz. Here we’re talking about the effective end of oil-backed dollars. Countries will start selling U.S. bonds and stocks to raise gold, and then sell gold for Chinese yuan. I’ve seen the data—since the war began, foreigners’ holdings of U.S. securities have dropped by $63 billion. And over the same period, U.S. gold exports have risen by 342%. People are buying gold with those dollars and removing it from the United States.

If this happens, why hold dollars in the first place? Most economies have a trade deficit with China. The only way to accumulate yuan is to sell dollars and gold. This isn’t the end of the dollar immediately, but the beginning of the end.

The third scenario is catastrophic: the United States wages a full-scale war against Iran. Yes, it will temporarily regain control of the strait, but Iran will take the energy production of the entire Gulf with it. Oil prices will explode, and global economies will collapse. Central banks will print money like crazy. Bitcoin might rise, but it will be temporary—because the likelihood of a third world war will become very, very real.

Here’s the interesting part: after the recent ceasefire, U.S. SaaS stocks fell again, but Bitcoin rose. This is an important decoupling. But it’s too early to say that Bitcoin has already surpassed the inflation caused by artificial intelligence.

Personally, I already hold large long positions—but the risk-to-reward ratio isn’t enough for me to go all-in on investing right now. I’m watching the MOVE index (bond market volatility). When it crosses 130, money-printing will really start. Only then will I increase risk.

The assets I’m focusing on right now: gold and $HYPE (Hyperliquid token). I expect Hyperliquid to capture a large share of the prediction market soon.

Conclusion: In the end, Bitcoin may rise above all major assets, but the path is incredibly complex. Artificial intelligence, wars, geopolitics—everything is intertwined. Don’t rush. Wait for clear signals from the central bank.