I noticed an interesting trend in the prediction market — Kalshi's shares before the IPO increased by 21.7% in a month, surpassing even BTC and ETH. Overall, this shows how quickly the pre-trading segment is developing.

I remember, back in August 2025, Nick Tomaino from 1confirmation talked about a 100-fold increase in prediction market volumes. At that time, it sounded like science fiction — Polymarket and Kalshi were far from a valuation of $10 billion, and trading volume barely reached $2 billion per month. But look at what happened over six months.

In October, Polymarket received $2 billion in investment from ICE Group, and its valuation rose to $9 billion. Simultaneously, Kalshi conducted two funding rounds — the latest one for $1 billion with participation from Paradigm, Sequoia, a16z, ARK Invest, and other heavyweights. Kalshi's valuation increased to $11 billion.

But the most interesting part is the trading dynamics. In September 2025, the total volume of the two platforms was $1.44 billion. By November, they were already approaching $10 billion per month. And by December? Kalshi alone processed $6.38 billion in a month — a record. Throughout 2025, the platform handled a nominal volume of $23.8 billion, which is 12 times more than the previous year.

What happened in 2026? Even more alarming figures. On January 12, the total prediction market reached $702 million in a day, with Kalshi accounting for $465 million — two-thirds of the total volume. By the end of January, Kalshi's monthly volume was approaching $9 billion, with an average daily turnover of about $293 million.

This means that over six months, the volume on a single Kalshi platform exceeded the entire prediction market volume of that time. A 100-fold growth no longer seems unrealistic — $200 billion is just a quarter of the projected $500+ billion for the market in 2025.

Regarding the valuation of Kalshi's shares before the IPO — there's an interesting spread. Traditional platforms like Nasdaq Private Market value the stock at around $307. Crypto platforms are more optimistic: PreStocks estimates it at up to $407, and Jarsy even up to $450. The difference is significant, reflecting different views on the platform's potential.

Personally, I see several signals in this. First, Kalshi is an American platform with full licensing, giving it an advantage over competitors. Second, the growth trajectory is simply exponential — since September 2024, the chart has hardly dipped. Third, mainstream finance and crypto investors evaluate the prospects differently, which usually indicates undervaluation on one side.

Looking at the data from January 2026, Kalshi's shares show that the prediction market is truly entering a new phase. Volumes are growing month after month, the user base is expanding, and functionality is improving — recently, they launched a Combo feature that pushed new records.

An average daily turnover of $293 million is a serious figure. For comparison, it's more than the daily volume of many crypto assets. And this is while the prediction market is still in its early stages of development.

I'm personally paying closer attention to this. If Kalshi's IPO happens in the coming months, a price range of $300 to $450 per share seems fair, but considering the current dynamics, the upper limit could be conservative. On Gate, you can track related assets and market sentiment — usually, interesting trading opportunities appear there before such events.