CITIC Construction Investment Futures: Limited impact of regional weather, the short-term strength and sustainability of the rubber market may be limited

Recently, there have been obvious high-temperature and low-rainfall conditions in domestic production regions in Yunnan and Hainan, as well as in Vietnam. Based on current meteorological data, Thailand, Indonesia, and Ivory Coast—together accounting for 65%(—although they are also experiencing high temperatures, the rainfall has not shown any significant abnormalities. Rainfall is still not lower than that of the same period in 2024, and average temperatures have also not exceeded those of the same period in 2024). The weather conditions in 2024 are relatively extreme(, so the current conditions are expected to be at least better than those of the same period in 2024. Therefore, the anticipated impact of weather issues on the supply side will be weaker than in 2024. On the demand side, downstream inventories have recently edged up slightly, which may reflect a period of slowing demand. With high attention on weather conditions in production areas recently, market bullish expectations may be triggered again; however, fundamentals may not keep up. Therefore, after near-term strength, the extent and duration of the near-term rally may be relatively limited. (CITIC Construction Investment Futures)