In the evening, keep an eye on the U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data for the week. At present, the market expectation is 210,000, with the previous value at 207,000. Judging from the trend of the past year’s data, overall it has remained around 200,000 with only minor fluctuations. The employment market has not shown any obvious deterioration and is still in a relatively stable range.

From the chart, it can be seen that in recent times the data has repeatedly swung back and forth within the 200,000–220,000 range, indicating that the scale of layoffs has not expanded significantly. At the same time, there is also a lack of signals for further strengthening, and the employment side is showing a state of “steady but slightly weak.”

Against this data backdrop, its impact on the market is often relatively limited. It won’t form a strong bearish catalyst, nor is it easy to create a strong bullish catalyst. More often, it is short-term emotional disturbance rather than a trend-driven move.

For trading, you need to pay attention that if this kind of data does not come in clearly above expectations, it’s easy to see a choppy washout rhythm of spiking up and then pulling back, or probing down and then rebounding. In simple terms, it does not give you direction—it only gives you volatility.

Tonight, the bigger probability is still for sideways movement as the main theme. The focus is on whether, after the data is released, there is an outperformance deviation versus expectations; then decide whether to follow the short-term move, rather than placing bets in advance.
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