Just checked the CME FedWatch tool again and it's pretty clear the Fed's probably holding rates steady through March. Like 95.9% probability according to the data. Only a tiny 4.1% chance they actually cut by then. What's interesting is looking further out - April shows an 83% hold probability, but by June that changes. There's already a 44% chance of a 25bp cut showing up by mid-year. So it looks like the market's pricing in maybe some relief later, but near-term we're stuck. Makes sense given where inflation is still sitting. Curious how this plays out if the economic data shifts before then.