I just checked the CME FedWatch tool — the probability that the ФРС will cut the rate already in March turns out to be quite low, at just 7.4%. The system shows that the probability of keeping the current rates is much higher — as much as 92.6%. Honestly, this isn’t really surprising, given the current inflation situation.

What’s interesting is that if you look at April, the probability is even more modest. For a 25 basis point rate cut — 23.3%, while the probability that the rates won’t change at all is 75.4%. A drop all the way by 50 points is basically unlikely — just 1.4%.

It turns out the market doesn’t expect any quick moves from the ФРС. The probability of any significant changes in the coming months looks quite low. You need to keep an eye on macroeconomic data, which could change everything.