If the United States lifts the blockade, Iran is willing to hold negotiations; but the likelihood of reaching a ceasefire before April 30 is not great.

Iran’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations stated:
Iran’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations said that if the U.S. lifts the blockade, Tehran is willing to negotiate.
Ceasefire conditions: The condition for a ceasefire before April 30 is… 15%, down from yesterday’s **32%**.
When Iran issued its statement, Pakistan was still mediating. Tehran’s condition is that any negotiations must be premised on the U.S. lifting the blockade.
Market reaction:
The ceasefire market also reflects this skepticism, with the probability of reaching a ceasefire agreement by April 30 falling to 15%, despite such news.
Market trading is active: the daily face value is $213,788, but the USDC actually circulating is only $68,607.
Price fluctuations: a 5-point change in price requires $4,074; this is a market with relatively small trading volume, and large orders could affect the trading outcome.
Market sentiment and bets:
If the U.S. does not make concessions immediately, this is only a shift in wording, not a change in policy. Traders view this statement as a conditional measure rather than a breakthrough.
The stock price backing “Yes” is 15 cents; if the issue is resolved, it will pay $1, for a 6.67x return. This bet depends on whether diplomatic progress can be made quickly.
Key signals:
Key signals to watch are:
Any softening by the U.S. on sanctions or blockade issues could quickly change market sentiment.
Statements from U.S. Secretary of State Rubio, as well as from intermediaries such as Oman, will also show whether negotiations have truly made progress. (Trading Encyclopedia QMK9826)