I noticed an interesting pattern in the prediction markets — there has been really intense activity in recent months. On Polymarket and Kalshi, trading volumes have skyrocketed, coinciding with traders actively betting on a decline. It seems everyone is expecting a correction.

Here's what I see: on Polymarket, cryptocurrency bets have increased by nearly 40% — from $413 million to $564 million since the beginning of the year. On Kalshi, the growth is even more aggressive — volumes have tripled from $58 million to $197 million. This is clearly a signal that people are preparing for a downward move.

Regarding specific assets, the situation is as follows: Bitcoin is currently trading around $78.8k, but on prediction markets, bets on a drop below $55k still hold — apparently, traders are waiting for a more serious correction. The same story applies to Ethereum — the current price is $2.42k, and the probability of falling below $1.5k is estimated at 64% on Kalshi. The charts show a classic bear flag formation.

Interestingly, this isn't limited to crypto. Traditional markets also have a bearish sentiment — NVIDIA stocks indicate a potential drop below $164, with a classic "head and shoulders" pattern visible on the chart. On Kalshi, bets point to limited rate cuts by the Fed in 2026. Overall, prediction markets are clearly signaling weakness in both crypto and traditional stocks. It’s worth keeping an eye on these support levels.