Basically, at the end of the day, macro matters come down to whether you dare to increase your position size. When interest rates go up, money feels like it's tied with a chain; as risk appetite shrinks, the liquidity of copycat projects vanishes quickly, like water flowing out of a bathhouse, leaving mostly those who can run the fastest. When interest rates loosen a bit, everyone starts to think, "Well, let's gamble one more time," but I now prefer to be a bit slow, at least not to be the last one to catch the bag.

Recently, that main public chain is about to upgrade/maintain, and everyone in the group is guessing whether the ecosystem will move away. I think whether it moves or not isn't important; what's important is during those few days before and after the upgrade—whether bridges, cross-chains, LPs are withdrawing or not, and whether the fund flow suddenly becomes cleaner (or dirtier). Macro is the weather vane; on-chain is the footprints. Don't just listen to what people shout, first look at where the footprints are heading.