$BTC Evening Viewpoint:

Bitcoin has broken through the previous high and created a new high. And it has broken out of the horn (flared) pattern. Right now, it is ranging and oscillating along the upper boundary of the horn pattern. Although Bitcoin has made a new high, after printing the new high it has not continued to surge. Look at the move shown in the yellow box circled on the left—will Bitcoin now replicate this segment of action? As long as the yellow-haired person doesn’t make any comments, it will most likely replicate the segment circled in the yellow box on the left. Because after Bitcoin created a new high, it didn’t pull away from the previous high indicated by the red arrow on the left. If it really wants to break upward further, after creating a new high it must quickly surge and pull away from the previous high by a certain distance, then trade sideways in consolidation. For example: it’s like there are a bad guy(s) chasing you from behind to beat you—shouldn’t you run fast to put a safe distance between you and the pursuer before you can rest? Instead of the pursuer being only 1-2 meters away and you already deciding to rest—if the bad guy catches up, they won’t just scare you, they’ll beat you to death. So I’m saying: the current market will most likely replicate the segment circled in the yellow box on the left, going through a pullback and then rising—unless the yellow-haired person releases positive news again and pushes the price up (drags it up) again. That would break the move I described above. Look at the position circled in the white box below: you didn’t go long at the position in the white box, and you didn’t chase long when Bitcoin broke through 76272. Chasing long at the position pointed to by the yellow arrow has no favorable cost-effectiveness. Unless Bitcoin can directly break through the 79215 resistance to open up more upside space, your probability of getting stopped out is very high. It’s better to wait patiently for a retest and then go long—if you miss it, you miss it; missing is better than making a wrong move. Not every market move can be caught. As long as Bitcoin re-enters and trades inside the horn pattern, and falls below 77561, it will start the pullback once it breaks through smoothly. If it breaks below 77561, it will definitely go back to retest the 76272 support. It can keep running along the upper boundary of the horn pattern for a bit and even “pop up” once more, but if it can’t get past the 79215 resistance, it’s useless.
Bitcoin breaks down below 77865 with volume, and the rebound cannot recover—this suggests a short-term pullback. Conservative traders should wait for a pullback to 76398 and then add long with half a position on the left side. Aggressive traders who can’t wait for the pullback can go long if it breaks through 78420. Take profit at 79215-80k, and set a stop loss at 77000. I don’t recommend doing this.
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$BTC