$BTC 1W

The longer price continues to show acceptance at current levels, the more I lean toward short-term upside continuation. That said, this does not change my higher time frame (HTF) bearish bias.
At present, I expect price to follow a path similar to what I’ve outlined on my chart comparable to the end of the 2022 bear market cycle. We saw a 1W 12/21 EMA bearish crossover, followed by a rally back into those EMAs, a break above, and then a deviation leading into continued downside.
In this scenario, I’m targeting a move toward the yearly open before a broader downtrend resumes. The EMA bands remain wide and bearish, with no indication of a bullish crossover yet even if we see a rally toward the 87–88k region.
Last cycle, it took approximately 315 days from the bearish crossover to the ultimate bottom. If a similar fractal plays out, that would suggest a potential bottom forming closer to the end of September. At this stage, I see no strong evidence to suggest a bottom has already formed significantly ahead of that timeline.