The global geopolitical situation has indeed been quite tense recently, with several leads developing at the same time. First, regarding Russia and Ukraine, Poutine announced a 32-hour Easter ceasefire starting at 9 PM Beijing time on April 11, and Zelensky also agreed to abide by it. It looks like both sides have reached some consensus at least for this religious holiday.

However, the situation is more complicated in the Middle East. The conflict between Israel and Lebanon is still intensifying. Israel’s prime minister has called for direct negotiations, but insisted that Hezbollah must disarm for a ceasefire to be reached. Interestingly, Trump has publicly suggested that Israel’s military operations in Lebanon should be carried out discreetly, clearly trying to prevent the situation from escalating further.

Iran is also active. Their deputy foreign minister confirmed peace talks in Islamabad, but on the condition that Israel stop its attacks on Lebanon. Meanwhile, Trump also specifically warned Iran not to levy transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming that this would violate the US-Iran agreement. Behind this threat is actually an energy issue: the US government may extend its sanctions exemptions on Russian oil, which could affect the future sanctions level on Iran’s oil.

Another detail is that Yemen’s Houthi forces have threatened to restrict navigation in the Red Sea in response to the attack on Lebanon. The whole situation appears to be multiple flashpoints pulling at each other, and an escalation in one region could trigger a chain reaction. Iran denies firing missiles during the ceasefire, but trust is clearly limited.