Today I saw someone shouting "on-chain coincidence transfers again," and honestly, many of these aren't coincidences; it's just that the paths haven't been broken down. When an address A sends to B, it looks like a gift, but in reality, it might have gone through an aggregator, router, or even exchanged in a pool before returning to the same entity's wallet. I now habitually focus on three things first: whether the source of funds is from the same batch, whether the timing resembles a script, and whether the final destination has entered the same contract or vault. Connecting these points, what is called a "coincidence" becomes an explainable business flow or arbitrage flow. Recently, AI agents and automated trading have been quite noisy, with narratives being hyped up, but I care more about how they sign, how they limit permissions—otherwise, a one-click interaction is convenient, but if something goes wrong, it could be dangerous... Anyway, I prefer to go slower, draw a couple of small diagrams for myself to feel a bit safer.