The oil price surged to 93 and then dropped again, a typical case of being cautiously optimistic while buying tail risk insurance.

Trump says the request for Pakistan-mediated extension of the ceasefire should be granted, but the conditions are tough: Iran must first submit a unified plan before negotiations continue. Iran has explicitly refused to participate in the April 22 negotiations, stating that the U.S. violated the ten-point framework agreement during the first round of Islamabad talks. Adding to this, Trump's previous strong warning that "Iran may be bombed," and Vance's visit to Pakistan still not being scheduled, this ceasefire seems more like a "life extension," extremely fragile and potentially torn apart by sudden events at any time.
Market reactions are also typical: as soon as the news broke, risk appetite warmed, BTC broke through $76,000, with about $260 million in liquidations across the network, including approximately $171 million in shorts, clearly driven by "news-driven rally + short covering" acceleration. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil briefly surged to $93.68 (+3.65%) before slightly retreating, indicating that funds are trading both the optimistic sentiment of "ceasefire extension" and still hedging against the tail risk of "negotiation breakdown/reignition of conflict."
Next, focus on three key points: whether negotiations can restart and provide an actionable timeline; whether oil prices will strengthen again (often indicating rising geopolitical risks); and whether BTC can retest and stabilize after breaking through, or if it will more likely follow a "liquidation ending → profit-taking" retracement path.