Macroeconomically, the expectation of interest rate cuts has been repeatedly postponed. The Federal Reserve publicly says they are data-dependent, but in practice, they do nothing. Without easing, how far can prices be driven solely by sentiment? Moreover, U.S. Treasury yields are still high, and funds would rather buy government bonds than touch risky assets.

Fourth, look at the funding rate for perpetual contracts, which has remained above 0.01% for a continuous week. The long positions are so crowded that any small disturbance can trigger a chain of liquidations. We have seen this kind of stampede too many times.